Could The Israel-Hamas War Spread?

Written by Jack Elbaum

What’s happening: As the war between Israel and Hamas continues into its 11th day, concerns are rising over the possibility of a second or even third front.

• Context: Iran funds terrorist proxies across the Middle East — including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and more in Syria and Iraq. Dubbed the “Axis of Resistance,” their leading goal is to destroy Israel.

So far: The fighting has been exclusively between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. There have been periodic attacks from Hezbollah into northern Israel — and subsequent Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon in response — but Lebanon has not officially joined the war.

• In preparation: Expecting Hezbollah to strike from the north, Israel has begun to evacuate civilians from 28 communities within 2 km of the Lebanese border, as the possibility of a second front opening up looms.

• Why? Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian wrote on X that, “The time for political solutions is running out, and the possible expansion of the war on other fronts is approaching the inevitable stage.”

Disaster: The expansion of the war would be disastrous for Israel. Hezbollah currently has 150,000 rockets pointed at Israel. For context, Hamas has launched about 6,700 so far, and Hezbollah’s rockets are far more high-tech than those coming from Gaza. Hezbollah is also capable of a large-scale ground attack, as it is at least double the size of Hamas.

Bottom line: If Israel takes out Iran’s proxies in the region, including Hamas, Iran has threatened retaliation to protect its allies and interests in the area. If Hezbollah attacks, prompting Iran to enter the war, America is prepared to use military force with two aircraft carriers ready in the region.