Germany’s Far-Right Ascends

Written by Anthony Constantini

What’s happening: The German AfD (Alternative für Deutschland), a far-right party by the standards of German politics, is surging in popularity. Its success is partially due to the ruling government’s green energy push — which would hurt the poorer East economically, where the AfD is strongest — but is more so due to the failure of successive governments to control migration.

• The numbers: In the first half of 2023, Germany received 30 percent of all asylum claims in the European Union. In that same six-month period, the AfD rose from 4th place to 2nd, ahead of the left-wing Social Democrats, polls show.

• Catch up: Most European countries got rocked by a migrant crisis around 2016 when Syrian refugees arrived in masses. Germany now hosts over a million refugees as of last year and received 300,000 asylum requests. After the war in Ukraine started, Germany took in over a million Ukrainians, around half of which don’t want to leave.

Why it matters: While the right has been rising to power throughout the EU, it has so far failed to gain a foothold in Germany, seen by many as the heart of Europe. This is mostly because all other parties have unofficially agreed to never work with them.

• How establishment parties are reacting:Some German politicians have toyed with banning the AfD outright, arguing that the party is dangerous to Germany’s democracy. For now, the ruling parties may simply attempt to reduce migration and, in doing so, reduce the AfD’s numbers, they hope.

What’s next: Next year, Germany will have three regional elections, all in the East: in Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia. The AfD is currently leading in all of them. With such a high level of support, it is questionable how much longer the establishment will be able to refuse working with the far-right.