Is Trump Close to Abandoning Israel? A Conversation with Jim Hanson

_THE INTERVIEW_

Ari: Jim, thank you so much for taking the time to talk today. First of all, thank you for having one of the best X accounts and for curating all your tweets. It's always informative about everything happening in the Middle East and beyond.

To start, there's so much happening right now, how do we even make sense of all this? Where do we start?

Jim: I know you're one of the guys who tries to cut through all the clutter and stop believing the garbage that comes from the obsolete media and propaganda accounts on X. Trump’s not abandoning Israel. What he’s doing is bringing more players to the game.

We've spent the past year and a half with Israel pretty much on its own, trying to wipe out Hamas — and doing a decent job — but that’s not a forever war the US is going to back.

So now we need to do something about that and about dismantling Iran’s nuclear program. All of this can be wrapped into one conversation — if we bring the Gulf Arab states and others to the table.

Ari: A lot of the "Trump is abandoning Israel" rhetoric is coming from Israel itself. I'm looking at Israelis — specifically from the center or center-left — they're the ones saying this.

Netanyahu’s whole thing is being close to Trump, and if suddenly Trump doesn’t back Bibi anymore, that could be used against him in the next elections. Is that where you think this is coming from?

Jim: I think that’s a big part of it. When you’re dealing with politicians, politics is often the reason things happen. Domestically, that’s part of it. It also looks that way on the surface.

Trump made a deal with the Houthis without Israel. There was a hostage deal without Israel. Now he’s visiting players who are frenemies or potential partners, and supposedly Israel isn’t on the table.

But I don’t believe that. Trump’s doing what he always does — he wants to make a deal. He needs to convince the next people he's talking to — the Saudis, Emiratis, and Qataris — that he isn’t a wholly owned subsidiary of Netanyahu Inc. And he never was.

If you want more people at the table, you invite them, give them something they want. That’s going to make others, Israel in this case, feel like they’re not getting everything. But it’s temporary.

Ari: Could we compare this to how Trump dealt with Ukraine and Russia when he came into office? Before that, America was backing Zelensky fully. Then Trump shows Putin he’s here to negotiate. Is that kind of what’s happening here?

Jim: That’s a great analogy. You can’t make a deal unless both sides agree. And in this case, we have three or four antagonistic sides — Israel, Palestinians, the war in Gaza, and the broader issue of a Palestinian state.

There’s also how Israel interacts with the Gulf Arab states. Trump wants to revive the Abraham Accords. People saying there’s no engagement with Israel are wrong. That was his big win in the first term, and he wants Saudi Arabia to sign a normalization deal with Israel before he’s done, to bring peace to the Middle East.

Then there’s the spider at the center of the web — the Islamic Republic of Iran. He wants a united front of the Gulf States, Israel, and the West to apply maximum pressure. Whether it leads to a deal — I’m skeptical — but it’s the right move.

Ari: Can you break down the different arguments on the right about Iran?

Jim: One word sums up Trump’s approach to Iran: dismantlement. If Iran doesn’t dismantle its nuclear program, there’s no deal.

The Trump administration pulled a great Jedi mind trick with Secretary of State Rubio offering civilian nuclear power — dismantle your program, and we’ll build you brand new reactors. But you have to import fuel, no enrichment.

Iran said no. That exposed their real intention: they want enrichment to build bombs, not civilian power. It’s now clear to anyone paying attention. No Trump deal will leave that program intact. They either dismantle it, or it will be dismantled for them.

Ari: Do you think Trump is moving successfully toward some kind of agreement?

Jim: I think eventually, there’s going to be smoking rubble at Iran’s nuclear sites. I don’t think Iran will do the deal. They think they can run out the clock. Trump’s not interested in that. He doesn’t want to be the guy who lets Iran get nukes.

He wants a big deal, but only if dismantlement comes first. If they keep playing games, he'll give them a 30-second clock. Make a legitimate move, or the jets will fly. That, to him, is a better outcome than letting Iran be the fly in the ointment for any big deal he wants to make in the region.

Ari: Let’s say that last scenario happens. A lot of anti-war voices on the right say that will cause World War III. Is that overblown?

Jim: Iran doesn’t have an expeditionary army, air force, or navy. What they have are asymmetric threats, which they’ve used successfully. But they can’t start World War III. China and Russia won’t join them. They'll be on their own.

That said, it could get ugly. You’d have to take out nukes, missiles, ports, navy, and air force infrastructure. One bonus: Israel took out most of Hezbollah’s and Hamas’s capabilities. Hezbollah isn't in a position to launch any meaningful ground battle now.

Will there be asymmetric threats? Terror attacks? Proxy trouble? Yes. Will it be bad? Yes. But World War III? Not even close.

Ari: What are your thoughts on Witkoff? How’s he doing so far?

Jim: Trump trusts him, which gives him a lot of leeway. I disagree with some of his views on Qatar, but I don’t agree with anyone 100 percent. The Trump team knows Qatar supports terrorism. But if Qatar stops that and becomes genuinely helpful, maybe they’re not the worst actors. It’s better to have a frenemy at the table than pushing them away and having them act worse.

Right now, there’s more carrot and less stick. But the stick is there — they have most favored non-NATO ally status, they’ve got the big bases we use. There are advantages to staying on good terms with the United States.

That will be used to bring them into the fold in return for stopping some of the things they've been doing that most people think are pretty heinous.

Ari: Are you talking just about the Middle East, or also their funding in the US, like on college campuses?

Jim: The Trump administration is taking a close look at foreign money flowing into US universities. Middle Eastern studies programs have received a lot of it, especially from Qatar, and it’s created a Jew-hating atmosphere disguised as anti-Zionism. But it's really Islamist supremacism.

Qatar has been one of the biggest funders of that, and it’s going to have to stop. Section 117 requires universities to disclose foreign funding. Reports will show that Qatari money has funded things that are fundamentally un-American, and that won't be tolerated anymore.

Ari: I’m fascinated by the outrage from the mainstream media, and even some Trump allies, about the jumbo jet Qatar might gift Trump. Is that a real story?

Jim: It’s a story. If it happens, it should be used to get concessions from Qatar. If they want to be seen as giving our Defense Department a “palace in the sky” for Trump, then stop letting Hamas operate out of Doha. Stop funding the Taliban. Stop funding al-Qaeda. Stop funding bad actors.

This isn’t traditional influence-buying. It’s more like Qatar buying the opportunity to be told how to behave better, in return for eventually getting improved US relations.

Ari: What should be the order of operations for Trump’s team? Is Iran first? Is China just as pressing?

Jim: Iran is the acute problem. If they get a nuke, the Middle East becomes a disaster. You have to act now.

China is the bigger, long-term strategic challenge. But again, Trump wants to compete on fair terms. He wants fair trade. Most of the world has treated the US unfairly, especially in manufacturing. Our corporations went along with it for profits and stock prices, but that’s not sustainable.

China could cut off our medicine supply, for example. We need more productive arrangements. That’s a longer-term project. Iran is more urgent. Russia-Ukraine falls in between — don’t let it escalate into World War III.

Ari: Final thoughts: What should we be watching in the Middle East in the coming weeks?

Jim: Trump is aiming for a Grand Accord. He wants to end the war in Gaza and create a counter-Iran coalition to make maximum pressure more effective — not just US sanctions. He wants the entire Gulf and Israel united with him and the West.

The message to Iran is clear: you’re not getting a nuke.

So if you want to avoid smoldering rubble, make a deal now. He’s building a coalition. If kinetic action becomes necessary, everyone will know there was a good-faith effort to avoid it. That’s why this is his first trip — and why these are the three countries he’s visiting.