Biden Warns of Democracy’s Collapse Instead of Touting His Record

The story

When Joe Biden first ran for office, he told donors he was a “transition” candidate. Virtually all of his top campaign staff believed he would be a one-term president. Four years later, Biden is running for reelection with his lowest approval rating ever.

To recover lost support, Biden is implementing a two-pronged strategy: reminding people why they voted against Trump, and convincing voters that his policies are working.

Biden’s campaign is painting Trump as a dictator-in-waiting, seizing on his joke that he’d be a dictator “on day one,” and is portraying Trump as willing to ban abortion nationwide, and as racist toward migrants.

Biden spent much of last year touting “Bidenomics” — the White House term for his economic policies — described as “making smart public investments,” growing the middle class, and “promoting competition.” The problem is that Americans don’t like “Bidenomics.” They blame him for soaring prices and inflation.

The president also tried touting the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, traveling the country to highlight areas that benefited from the law. But that’s not working either. Polling shows that Trump, who never passed an infrastructure spending law, is effectively tied with Biden on the question of who accomplished more.

The sides

In 2020, Biden promoted himself as a kindly dealmaker who would unite the country. However, Biden cannot successfully run on unity with such low approval ratings and an administration that conducted perceived lawfare against his political opponents.

Conservatives target President Biden on immigration. Multiple polls show that large majorities support Trump’s plan to deport all illegal migrants — indicative that Biden’s base does not align with a majority of voters on key issues. When Biden recently signed an executive order limiting the ability of some migrants to claim asylum, Democratic Rep. Pramila Jayapal (WA) called it “very, very disappointing.”

Conservatives also highlight voter concerns over Biden’s age. Multiple polls reveal that voter supermajorities — including Biden’s own supporters — believe he is too old to govern effectively.

Vice President Kamala Harris defined the election as a fight “about freedom,” portraying Biden as a defender of democracy. A prevalent theme of the left is that Trump will be even more dictatorial in 2024, driven by a desire for retribution for four criminal cases brought against him. The rhetoric will inevitably increase tensions and could fuel violence if Trump is reelected, as a form of resistance to authoritarian rule.

Democrats champion Biden’s policy record, arguing that old age and experience in government make him competent to put out multiple fires on the world stage and oversee a strong economy. His detractors argue that Biden’s incompetence exacerbates the conflicts in both Ukraine and the Middle East.

Beyond the headlines

In order to win re-election, Biden needs to maintain support levels from four years ago, at the bare minimum. But Hispanics — a crucial voting bloc for Democrats, particularly in Arizona and Nevada — are growing skeptical. Biden's support among Hispanics is currently 42 percent, while Trump's is low 30s. However, Biden's 42 percent represents a significant decline from four years ago.

The downslope in support could be linked to Biden admitting 4 million illegal migrants during the past three years. In that same period, Hispanic support jumped for building a border wall and for mass deportations.

Polls also show President Biden losing youth supporters. One poll has Trump ahead with voters aged 18 to 29 — a feat no other Republican presidential candidate has achieved since the 1980s. Seeing as Joe Biden is considered the candidate of the status quo, one explanation for young voters moving to Trump is that he is regarded as the candidate of change.

Why it matters

The outcome of the 2024 election may not depend on Americans' support for President Biden but on whether they can be convinced that Donald Trump is a unique danger to American democracy. The assertion is becoming the centerpiece of Biden’s campaign, since his policy record offers little else to run on and is not resonating with the public.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump has ample opportunity to test bold new policy proposals and to campaign in states that could threaten Biden’s reelection chances. Where Biden drops the ball, Trump and his campaign team are figuring out ways to grab it and run.