Can New York Turn Red This November?

What's happening? Polls show that Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.) passed Democrat incumbent Kathy Hochul in New York's gubernatorial race. Zeldin has 46 percent overall support and is leading among Hispanic and Independent voters. Hochul has 45 percent general support. The remaining 9 percent of voters are undecided.

Why is this happening? Taxes, the economy, and crime are top issues for New Yorkers. Since last year, New York City's crime rate has increased by 30.5 percent, and seven in 10 New Yorkers fear becoming victims. Zeldin's whole campaign is based on being tough on crime.

Can New York turn red? For Republicans to win, Zeldin would need an estimated 30 percent of the vote in NYC and a lead in the suburbs and upstate New York. He is currently predicted to win 37 percent of NYC voters and has a slight lead in the suburbs and 52 percent support in upstate New York.

There’s something similar happening in Oregon: No state in the country has more reliably elected Democratic governors than Oregon. But that Democrat control is now being threatened by Republican Christine Drazan, who is running on fighting crime and homelessness, similar to Zeldin.

Other gubernatorial races to watch

Latest numbers show Republicans leading in gubernatorial races across the country. Republicans will likely win Florida, Georgia, Texas, and Ohio, among 13 other expected races. Races in Arizona, Nevada, and Oregon are a toss-up.

Big picture: Americans are concerned about inflation, gas prices, and crime. Polls show that Americans trust Republicans to tackle these issues, giving Republicans the opportunity to sweep in gubernatorial, House, and Senate races across the country.