Canada Shows Signs of a Rightward Shift

Written by Anthony Constantini

What’s happening: Though elections aren’t scheduled for another two years, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s polling is so bad that a recoverable seems almost impossible: his party is at 26 percent approval while the opposition Conservatives are at 43 percent.

• Historically bad: It’s hard to overstate how dire things are for Trudeau. His approval rating barely cracks 30 percent, almost half of his party wants him to step down, and Canadians recently picked him as the worst prime minister in 50 years in a survey.

Why the bad news?: Trudeau has been in office for 8 years, and his father was for about 15 — so it’s possible that Canadians are simply getting tired of the Trudeaus.

• Zoom in: But he has also failed to address rising housing costs, which was a major campaign promise. He’s also pushed an increasingly unpopular and expensive carbon tax.

Enter Pierre Poilievre: The Conservative Party has seized the moment with a savvy candidate.

• The angle: Pushing “common sense” instead of what he portrays as Trudeau’s fiscal irresponsibility, Poilievre has dropped an earlier focus on attacking Trudeau on social issues and has pivoted to bread-and-butter economic issues — and it’s working, as evidenced by his rising approval and his party’s numbers.

But, Poilievre has two problems: firstly, elections are two years away. Secondly, he must walk a tightrope: wink to the socially conservative members of his party, keeping them engaged while refraining from embracing too much social conservatism as Canada is simply not a socially conservative country.