Catholicism Loses Ground to a New Progressivism

• Pope Francis recently embarked on a pan-Asian tour, where he spoke at rallies and held Masses in multiple countries

• Catholicism used to be the beating heart of Europe; now, its center of mass has shifted to Latin America and Africa

• Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are working hard to win American Catholic votes

The story

Pope Francis recently caused a stir when he commented on the upcoming American presidential election, saying, “Both [Donald Trump and Kamala Harris] against life, be it the one who kicks out migrants, or be it the one who kills babies.” He told Catholics to vote for the lesser evil, though he did not clarify which of the two candidates fit that description.

The pope’s comments came during a trip to Asia, during which he went to multiple countries and spoke to massive crowds. Some observers saw the trip as a “dress rehearsal” for a trip to China.

Relations between the Vatican and China are strained, as the communist state has cracked down on the Church. While Chinese Catholics can worship in “official churches,” many practice their faith underground. Last week, Pope Francis declared that China was now “a promise and a hope” for the Catholic Church.

That the pope can command such massive crowds indicates that the Catholic Church is still an influential force in the world; about 1.3 billion people are Catholic. But in the 21st century, that influence has been hindered by two growing forces: young progressives and evangelicals.

A changing landscape

Catholicism once held immense influence in Europe; at one point, the pope could command emperors. But those times are long past, and in Europe, its influence has waned. At the beginning of the 20th century, Europe was home to around two-thirds of the world’s Catholics; Now, it’s around 20 percent.

Its loss of influence is having major implications throughout the continent. For example, Poland’s government is considering recognizing same-sex relationships, and its prime minister came very close to legalizing abortion. Not too long ago, when the Catholic faith in Europe was stronger, these changes would have been unthinkable.

The Church’s popularity in Poland among young voters is dismal: while older Poles are strongly Catholic, only nine percent of young voters view the Church positively.

For a long time, hope for Catholics was in the New World, as Latin America currently holds nearly 40 percent of all Catholics. But even there, trouble is afoot: Catholics in Latin America are converting in droves to Protestantism.

In Brazil, so many Catholics have left for Protestantism that the country will soon not be a majority Catholic country; some polls already have more identifying as Protestant than Catholic.

However, the Catholic Church in Africa is growing rapidly, particularly in two countries. A 2023 study found that Nigeria and Kenya, on opposite ends of the continent, have some of the highest weekly Mass attendance rates in the world.

But that growth has not come without issue: Islamic terrorists in both Nigeria and Kenya regularly attack and kill Catholics (and Christians in general) on a regular basis. As the population of Muslims grows in east Kenya, that friction is likely to increase.

Trump courting Catholics

In the United States, Catholics generally are swing voters. In 2020, Biden captured a majority of the Catholic vote, while Trump won them in 2016.

As Catholics, particularly Poles, have higher-than-average population rates in the battleground Rust Belt states (they rise to nearly 10 percent of the population), both Trump and Harris are competing over them in the 2024 presidential election.

The Trump campaign announced their “Catholics for Trump” campaign, while the Harris campaign gave supporters the option of signing up to be a “Catholic for Harriz-Walz.”

On the Nativity of Mary earlier this month, Donald Trump even posted an image of Our Lady of Guadalupe with the caption, “Happy Birthday Mary!”

Donald Trump was also planning a joint meeting with President Andrzej Duda of Poland to visit the National Shrine of Our Lady of Czestochowa in Pennsylvania. However, Trump reportedly had to cancel the meeting.

Duda, a conservative Catholic who got along well with Trump when the latter was in office, might endorse Trump for president — but it is hard to tell how many votes that would net Trump.

Why it matters

In Europe, many Catholic traditions still permeate the culture even if the ordinary population does not attend weekly Mass. The faith has been in crisis on the continent for decades, and the recent sex abuse scandals coming to light have been devastating for the laity.

Meanwhile, the Church is thriving in Africa and the Asia-Pacific, leaving the West to attach itself to more left-wing, secular ideologies. As Catholicism has been a cornerstone of Western history, progressivism often positions itself in opposition, challenging traditional ways of life throughout Europe and the Americas.

In the US, the high proportion of Polish Catholic votes in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania is going to be critical in the presidential election. If Trump were able to win back the Catholic vote, he would very likely win the race. Kamala Harris is aware of this as well, which is why both campaigns are actively targeting Catholics.