Childless Americans Are Collapsing the Population

• Fewer Americans are having kids for a mixture of economic, cultural, and spiritual reasons

• Concern about the crashing birth is growing among politicians

• Migrants and their children are predicted to have the largest impact on U.S. population growth over the next several decades

The story

Fewer American couples are having children, causing birthrates to crash. The average American woman had 1.62 children as of 2023, a record low, and the result of various intersecting factors.

Humans today live in a modern technological world with fewer traditional expectations, allowing couples to plan families. Changes in economics and norms of parenting also play a role.

Population collapse, not only in America but also in the rest of the Western world, poses massive problems in terms of adequately funding national programs like Social Security and Medicare. Even keeping the economy afloat is ticklish, since there will be fewer future people to fill job vacancies, thereby shrinking the economy.

Americans opting out of having families also signals a collapse in traditional morality and possibly a spiritual emptiness that is discounted due to the high cost of raising kids.

Politicians wake up

Politicians are waking up; some are embracing natalism while, in recent years, others introduced legislation that incentivizes people to have children.

Pro-family policy is rarely framed in terms of birthrate. However, Democrats and Republicans alike, especially populists, embrace pro-family goals. President Biden’s failed pro-family agenda included expanding the child tax credit, and universal pre-K and daycare.

Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) supports encouraging family formation, including universal health care for pregnancy and babies. Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) supports cash benefits for families with children.

Matthew Yglesias, left-leaning author of One Billion Americans, encourages natalist and pro-migration policies. Many on the left support mass migration into the U.S. to fill the native-born population deficit.

According to Pia Orrenius, vice president and senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, the “astronomical” migration into the United States has been key to maintaining economic growth. “You can’t grow like this with just the native workforce. It’s not possible.”

Democrats and Republicans are finally uniting to address an issue that both parties have an interest in solving. Fourteen members of Congress from both sides are working on paid family leave. The last time they cooperated on a similar effort was in the 1990s when they introduced the child tax credit.

Why is this happening?

Many couples are choosing not to have children for changing cultural reasons. For millennia, it was uncommon for couples to remain childless because children were vital domestic labor. They helped with farming and production, enabling families to sustain. Without the children’s labor contribution, it would have been challenging for families to manage the workload required to maintain their livelihoods.

Further, the trend of fewer women becoming mothers may facilitate a continued downward trend. Author Mary Eberstadt hypothesized that this is because “motherhood is a memetic desire” — imitated by daughters, nieces, and granddaughters.

Parents are widely reported to be less happy. Social and economic conditions parents are subjected to reputedly cause unhappiness. Men tend to feel enormously happy to have children, especially when deeply involved in their lives. Mothers in small families are less happy than the motherless, than mothers in large families, or mothers in countries that support family formation.

More parents are opting out of having children, who were more independent in past generations. Children today have smaller communities and extended family networks to foster them, resulting in greater pressure on two parents.

Economic reasons also encourage couples to wait longer to procreate, or to abstain entirely. Again, cultural expectations play a role. Today's parents do not want kids unless they can provide a very comfortable life for them.

Expensive extracurricular activities and sending children to the most expensive colleges comprise half the increase in child-raising expenses. Parents feel awkward opting out of these new norms, so some don’t have kids.

American populists, left or right, do not welcome the influx of migrants. Increasing numbers of Republicans challenge the idea that migration is essential for sustaining the U.S. economy. To protect American workers and their jobs, left-wing actors like Bernie Sanders have long opposed illegal migration.

The decline in family formation and childbearing also carries international implications. Geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan has dark predictions for countries which cannot stabilize birthrates. He foretells that crashing birthrates and subsequent population declines will destabilize or destroy the German, Russian, and Chinese states within decades, causing international chaos.

Why it matters

Happy families and a stable population are foundational to the vitality of Western civilization. A preview of depopulation if we do not respond appropriately to the crashing birthrate is evident across the Rust Belt — in the ghettos of Detroit and Baltimore — and in ghost towns in Japan.

America is one of few developed countries expecting continued population growth because of its massive influx of illegal migrants. However, Republicans view the issue with nuance and recognize that there are greater concerns at stake.

While politicians debate the approach to salvaging America’s population, the choice to start a family lies with individuals. People have to want kids and want to prioritize family life over short-term fun: vacations, or buying nicer apartments and cars. Legislation alone can’t repopulate the country.