China Is With Russia Like America Is With Ukraine

What’s happening: After viral footage of Chinese citizens being denied entry into Russia swept Chinese social media, Beijing issued its harshest public rebuke of Russian President Vladimir Putin yet. But China’s support of Russia’s war effort is still strong.

The rebuke: China’s Moscow embassy issued a public statement that said, “Russia’s brutal and excessive law-enforcement activities in this incident have seriously violated the legitimate rights and interests of the Chinese citizens.”

• In context: While the episode demonstrates that relations between Moscow and Beijing are more complexthan portrayed by the West, it will likely not impact ties between the two nations significantly.

• Junior partner: China no longer sees Russia as a great power, but rather an ideologically-aligned junior partner to counter the United States in the tech sector, in the United Nations’ Security Council, and with military power. Overall, China intends to roll back America’s global influence with Russia’s help.

Beijing vs. Washington: China perceives the conflicts involving Russia and Ukraine as a proxy war instigated by Washington against Beijing. According to this perspective, the U.S. is utilizing Ukraine to rally NATO against both Russia and China, a strategy similar to American efforts to strengthen ties with Taiwan.

• That’s why China is arming Russia to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars in military hardware. Analysts believe Chinese leadership is all-in on their support for the war effort.

The feeling is mutual: The U.S. also believes China’s involvement is meant to test American aggression so that it knows what to expect in Taiwan.