Conservatives Shouldn't Get Complacent. Trump Can Still Lose

• Trump’s recent gains in the polls suggest he has the momentum, but these shifts are still within a razor-thin margin

• GOP turnout on Election Day is crucial, as early voting trends alone are not decisive

• Democrats are mass mobilizing base voters in swing states

The story

The 2024 presidential election is four days away, and headlines and commentary about Donald Trump’s momentum against Kamala Harris abound.

Media outlets and political analysts have recently highlighted an uptick in Trump’s poll numbers since September, as well as apparent shifts in his favor in the battleground states.

But while this “momentum” is causing excitement within Republican circles, closer examination reveals that Harris’ slight edge hasn’t significantly eroded, and the polls showing Trump with a slight lead are still well within the margin of error.

In the seven critical battleground states, the margins remain razor-thin. Trump is currently slightly ahead in nearly every swing state, though Harris maintains a narrow lead in Michigan.

Pennsylvania, which could prove to be the deciding factor in the race, is essentially too close to call. There are some indications that GOP voting is picking up in the Keystone State, though both parties are banking on Election Day turnout as the most important key to victory.

The growing optimism among conservative commentators and within Trump’s own campaign doesn’t mean the race is over and decided. With days remaining, any last-minute misstep could sway the outcome for either side.

For Trump to win, he will need people to show up and vote for him on Election Day.

The politics

Top pollster Nate Silver emphasizes the “illusory” nature of momentum in such a close race, noting that minor polling variations are no guarantee of electoral success. Silver argues that Trump’s marginal advantage in a few battleground states doesn’t equate to a guaranteed path to victory.

Though, as Silver noted in a recent New York Times op-ed, **his “gut feeling” is that Trump will win the race.

Conservative commentator Ben Shapiro is more bullish on Donald Trump’s chances, asserting that Trump “is closing better than [Kamala Harris]” and that “all the momentum” is with Trump.

However, Charlie Kirk — another conservative — is sounding the alarm that men, especially in Pennsylvania, are not showing up in high numbers to early vote.

On the left, David Rothkopf writes glowingly in The Daily Beast that Kamala Harris is going to win because of her “flawlessly” executed campaign. Forget the data, writes Rothkopf; Harris’ campaign has mass mobilized Democratic voters for a historic get-out-the-vote on Election Day that will drive her to victory.

Contrary to this optimism, the last-minute campaign message from Barack and Michelle Obama, essentially ****begging black voters to turn out for Harris, indicates some worry from their side that this crucial demographic may not show up for the Democrat.

Questioning the data

Despite recent right-wing commentary suggesting that Trump’s momentum is making him the frontrunner, some analysts argue that these headlines exaggerate minor polling trends.

Dr. Stephen Voss, a political science professor at the University of Kentucky, warns against interpreting short-term fluctuations as evidence of a decisive shift, calling them “random noise” rather than reliable indicators.

Additionally, early voting data indicates Republican voters are more active since 2020, but this uptick doesn’t necessarily correlate with final turnout numbers. GOP voters have traditionally favored in-person voting on Election Day, which adds an unpredictable variable to the early voting trends.

Some analysts see the rise in GOP early-voting numbers as a strong sign for Trump, but it’s still unclear if these early votes will “cannibalize” Election Day turnout or if they show a real increase in Republican voting.

Why it matters

The Trump campaign’s enthusiasm has translated to some conservatives as a reason to prematurely declare victory. A massive Election Day turnout operation is still critical to ensure that the voters who claim to support Trump actually show up to cast a vote for him.

With Democrats’ historically strong get-out-the-vote efforts in general elections, the race is far from finished, and with the entire party apparatus behind her, Kamala Harris can still emerge the victor.