McELWEE: Where Pennsylvania Stands In The Last Few Days of The Race

Charles McElwee is the founding editor of RealClear Pennsylvania. He’s a contributing writer at City Journal and Politico Magazine. Follow him on X at @CFMcElwee.

This interview was edited for clarity.

Ari: It's all coming down to Pennsylvania. Everyone is super focused on the state. What are some of the trends in the state that are almost a microcosm for what's happening in the United States as a whole?

Charles: What makes Pennsylvania so interesting is that it's so demographically complex compared to all the other swing states. The combination of its demographic complexity, in tandem with the fact that it has the most electoral college votes — 19 — that could prove pivotal in the outcome.

That's what makes it so important to study and also critical to not misrepresent. In terms of demography, you can find everything here, and it's a total refutation of that perception that has long dominated out-of-staters' ideas of the state, which is often called "Pennsyltucky."

This is a state of many ethnicities and denominations, shaped by its rich history. Amid all the state’s increasing transience of the past eight years, wide-ranging voting blocs will determine who wins the state.

Ari: What are some of the trends happening in the state that are hurting the Harris campaign? What have they not been prepared for?

Charles: They were unprepared for the fact that Pennsylvania has so many small business owners. When we talk about the working class, people often picture the white working class of the traditional industrial Midwest, but that has changed in Pennsylvania.

Here, the working class is diverse and includes a significant Latino population, which now comprises the majority in many mid-sized cities and smaller towns across eastern Pennsylvania.

Many Latinos are small business owners, and they’ve endured the inflationary climate of the Biden era. As business owners, they can’t just pass costs onto the consumer.

So, working-class business owners who were already battered by strict COVID restrictions are now facing inflation. They don’t view the Democratic Party as representing their economic interests–particularly as illegal immigration has figured more prominently as a top concern.

Ari: Would it be simple to say that the reason Trump is doing better now than in 2020 in Pennsylvania is that voters are rejecting the last four years of economics, or is there something else?

Charles: They view Trump as economic insurance compared to what they’ve experienced under Biden. It’s that simple. It’s a financial decision for many voters across the state, and that’s why Trump resonates.

Meanwhile, Harris is trying to appeal to suburban families with student loan forgiveness, housing, and child tax credits. But Pennsylvania still has a substantial working-class population.

If that bloc turns out more for Trump in 2024 than in 2020, it’s a serious problem for Harris.

Ari: There’s been a lot in the news about the migrant crisis. Some voters rank it just below the economy. Are you seeing that in Pennsylvania, especially with the growing Hispanic population?

Charles: Yes, particularly in what I call the “Latino belt” of Allentown, Hazleton, and Reading. These communities have had Hispanic populations for 20 to 40 years now.

Many of them have direct ties to the New York City metro area, but they’re not necessarily recent immigrants. Instead, they are second and third-generation Dominican Americans who settled here for a better quality of life. They share the same concerns about inflation and economic stability as other residents.

And, as I reported for Politico, Latino residents who’ve been here for about 20 years share the native population’s concerns about immigration.

Together, these groups are part of the working-class realignment toward the Republican Party.

Ari: A while back, The New York Times reported that the Hispanic community in Texas was not supportive of migrants. Do you think that’s similar here? And if the Harris campaign came to you for advice on winning Pennsylvania, what would you tell them?

Charles: Yes, the sentiment is similar. For Harris, I would say suburbia isn’t just Greater Philadelphia or Pittsburgh. Since 2016, the state has become more suburban, including areas like the Harrisburg-Lancaster-York corridor.

This area has an increasingly transient population of millennials and younger people drawn by the healthcare sector and remote work. They’re struggling financially, with stagnant salaries and unaffordable housing. What is Harris’ message to them? How would she make their lives better? Many of these voters may concede that they were financially better off during Trump’s term until COVID.

Ari: Now let’s say the Trump campaign comes to you for advice on Pennsylvania. What would you suggest they focus on?

Charles: It’s largely the same message. Pennsylvania is the most suburban swing state, and the Trump campaign has to make inroads in suburbia. They should emphasize Trumpian economic positions and target areas like Bucks County, where Republicans have gained ground.

There are many blue-collar communities here that are struggling just as much as other parts of the state. They should focus on the working-class areas of these suburbs.

Ari: Do you think people will do down-ballot voting, supporting both Trump and Dave McCormick, or could McCormick have a problem?

Charles: No, I think as the race goes on, it becomes less likely that people will split their ticket. If they’re voting for Trump, they’re also voting for McCormick. The days of splitting a ticket for Casey are likely fading.

Casey has run an anemic campaign. He’s won past elections with incumbency power, but McCormick has run such a robust campaign that Casey is in the most vulnerable position of his career, and he knows it. Voters going for Trump will vote for McCormick, too.

Ari: Last question: Pennsylvania has changed so much in recent decades. What do you see for its future over the next 10 or 20 years?

Charles: I see Pennsylvania becoming increasingly influenced by other Mid-Atlantic regions. The Poconos and the Lehigh Valley will feel more of New York’s influence, and south-central Pennsylvania will be shaped by Baltimore and DC. What will this mean for politics? Will newcomers adopt local party affiliations or bring their preferences with them?

In places like Cumberland County, traditionally Republican suburbs are turning blue. This demographic shift will intensify over the coming years.