Demographic Change: Minorities Will Decide 2024

Classic battleground states will be decided by new communities.

What’s happening: The country's demographics are changing, and minority voters comprise an increasing component of the electorate. As the country looks to swing states to determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, the contest could be decided by racial and ethnic minorities.

Battlegrounds: Pennsylvania is poised to be a key swing state, and Latinos are its fastest growing demographic group. In 2023, Republicans swept local elections in Latino-populated areas even as the GOP experienced losses elsewhere the past few years. This rightward trend is expected to continue through the state’s elections this fall.

Between the lines: The demographic change coincides with a disruption of traditional voting patterns and could play in conservatives’ favor as minorities abandon Biden. However, the question is whether or not the GOP will tap into minority communities — groups largely overlooked due to their historic Democratic support.

  • Opportunity: Lack of minority support for Biden combined with GOP disregard may pave the way for third party candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who recently campaigned with black voters in Georgia.

Why it matters: Much of the rightward shift across minority groups is occurring organically, as documented by Charles McElwee for Politico, since the GOP hasn't put much effort into voter outreach in those communities. Largely untapped minority communities may strongly influence the results of the 2024 election.