When DeSantis’s Votes Are Up For Grabs

Written by Jack Elbaum

What’s happening: More election watchers are arguing Gov. Ron Desantis does not have a path to the GOP presidential nomination, which raises questions about how his exit from the race may affect different candidates.

Context: DeSantis just barely bested Nikki Haley for second place in Iowa, and polls show he will likely finish as a distant third in upcoming states. After peaking at the start of the race with about 31 percent support, DeSantis has since fallen into third place nationally with only 10.7 percent of GOP primary voters supporting him.

• Hypothetically: Many are now asking: what happens if DeSantis drops out? And how is he affecting the race by not dropping out?

Two theories: DeSantis’s exit from the race could benefit Trump as the current frontrunner since they share a similar political philosophy and “outsider” brand. However, his drop-out could benefit Haley because DeSantis voters prefer someone other than Trump to be the next president.

The numbers: There is limited polling on this question, and when it comes to specific states such as New Hampshire, some polls indicate a DeSantis exit could benefit either Trump or Haley. But most polls are indicating that the vast majority of DeSantis’s supporters would support Trump if DeSantis drops out.