🌎 Geopolitics 101: The Russia Reaction

Also, a possible Israel-Hamas ceasefire

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING

1. 🇵🇸 Hamas has responded “positively” to the White House’s peace proposal. The response came after initial uncertainty about whether Hamas would accept the terms. The terrorist organization said it still wants to hold “proximity” talks with Israel on issues including IDF withdrawal and the resumption of wider aid flows, among other topics. They also want assurances that the war will not break out should the ceasefire’s 60-day time limit expire. The deal would see half of the living hostages released over 60 days, along with half of the deceased hostages’ bodies.

2. 🇪🇺 The EU may give in to Trump’s 10 percent tariff demands. On July 9, President Trump’s threat to increase tariffs on the European Union to 50 percent will take effect, unless a deal is struck. European trade negotiators have been frantically speaking to their American counterparts and European leaders to avoid that scenario. The currently discussed deal would leave Trump’s 10 percent tariff in place, along with exemptions for auto and steel exports.

3. 🇺🇸 Trump held calls with Putin and Zelensky. President Trump first called Russian President Vladimir Putin; the Kremlin said they had a “frank” call, but Trump said he was “disappointed” by Putin’s unwillingness to consider peace talks. Trump then called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. While the White House did not comment on the call, Zelensky said it was fruitful and focused on mutual defense production.

4. 🇨🇩 It’s unclear if the recent Congo-Rwanda treaty will hold. The Trump administration brokered a peace deal between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda; the latter had invaded the former’s east via M23, a Rwandan-backed private army. If the deal holds, Trump hopes to gain access to the DRC’s immense mineral resources. But Rwanda is skeptical of the DRC, which hosts some officials who perpetuated the Rwandan genocide, and it is unclear if they will pull M23 back after the deal’s allotted 90-day mark.

INSIDER RADAR

Israel Katz on keeping pressure on Iran

Insiders behind the paywall: Israel Katz, German and Dutch spies, and the Japanese and Australian foreign ministers.

QUICK AND IMPORTANT
  • Russia launched more than 500 suicide drones at Ukraine — a record.

  • British Prime Minister Keir Starmer could be forced to step down within months, according to Labour Party MPs.

  • Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will hold talks with Argentine President Javier Milei today in Buenos Aires; India is interested in Argentina’s vast amount of critical minerals.

  • China’s foreign minister told his European counterparts that his country could not allow Russia to lose in Ukraine, as that would allow America to finally pivot to Asia.

Eastern Europe arms up as Russia fears grow

WHAT’S HAPPENING

For many Eastern European countries, the threat of a Russian invasion has become increasingly real. Vladimir Putin is showing no signs of letting his boot off Ukraine’s neck, and many of its neighbors, including Poland and the Baltic states, believe they could be next…

MEDIA BIAS SPOTTER

How left and right outlets frame a possible Israel-Hamas ceasefire

Mentioned behind the paywall: The AP, The New York Times, Breitbart, and The Washington Examiner.

THE DAILY DEBATE

📊 Are you concerned about Russia threatening Europe beyond Ukraine? (Also comment under the article!)

Results will be in tomorrow's newsletter

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POLL RESULTS FROM YESTERDAY

Do you think the Big, Beautiful Bill is so far the biggest win of Trump’s second term?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩  👍 Yes (871)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️  👎 No (178)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️  🤔 Unsure (112)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️  💬 Other (20)

👍 Yes: “Cashed in on so many of his key promises. Well done!” — Jack

👎 No: “His biggest accomplishment is trying to bring peace.” — Karla

👎 No: “This bill is a disaster. It doesn't cut the waste and it increases the deficit. This nation is on a brink of a fiscal disaster, and no one is doing anything aobut it.” — Kim

🤔 Unsure: “This will only be a win if Republicans cut spending and codify DOGE recommendations.” — Rick

1,181 votes

Today’s newsletter was written by Anthony Constantini, Brandon Goldman, and Ariel David. We scoured 100s of sources to bring you stories and insights you won’t find in the mainstream media.

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