🌎 Geopolitics 101: Understanding the Syrian Global Power Struggle
Also, Trump’s key to deterring China
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Good morning. The world order that most of us grew up with is changing fast, and our main stories today cover just two examples of what those changes look like. Syria has become a playground for the world’s militaries, and President-elect Donald Trump might be on the verge of making America the first country to recognize the tiny — but geographically significant — nation of Somaliland.
Mentioned in this edition: Bashar al-Assad, Cãlin Georgescu, Javier Milei, Giorgia Meloni, Yoon Suk Yeol, Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy, Bill Clinton, the leader of Ontario, a voodoo priest, Iran’s nuclear facilities, a suspended constitution, and more.
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WHAT WE'RE WATCHING
🇮🇷 Trump’s team is considering military action to contain Iran. Iran currently has enough highly enriched uranium to build four nuclear bombs and could convert it to weapons-grade fuel in a matter of days. To offset that threat, President-elect Donald Trump’s advisors have discussed a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. However, Trump does not want to trigger a wider war between the US and Iran and is leery of any actions that could pull in American troops.
🇦🇹 After Assad’s fall, Austria is planning to deport Syrian migrants. After the Syrian Civil War began, millions of Syrians traveled to Europe, and tens of thousands traveled to Austria. But with Bashar al-Assad losing power, the Austrian government has frozen all new asylum applications — reassessing around 40,000 previously approved applications — and is preparing to deport those no longer deemed qualified to stay.
🇷🇴 Romania has yet to set a date for its do-over presidential elections. After the Romanian Supreme Court nullified the first round of presidential elections — won by upstart nationalist Cãlin Georgescu — police began investigating claims that Russia had used 25,000 bot accounts and paid off TikTok influencers to support him. Police also raided Georgescu’s bodyguards, who were discovered to be traveling with a cache of illegal weaponry.
🇦🇷 Argentine President Javier Milei keeps racking up wins. Argentina recently hit a four-year low in inflation, and Milei’s government announced that it had eliminated Argentina’s deficit for the first time in 123 years. His policies have been suggested as a pathway forward for Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy’s DOGE program; Milei has recently spoken with both individuals.
🇪🇺 EUROPE
Ukraine received $20 billion from the US, taken from seized Russian assets.
The United Kingdom will ban puberty blockers for minors.
Donald Trump called Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni a “fantastic leader and person.”
Meloni will award Italian citizenship to Argentine President Javier Milei, who had Italian grandparents.
NATO’s chief wants members to boost defense spending to 4 percent of GDP.
Poland refuted reports that the country was considering sending a peacekeeping force into Ukraine after a potential ceasefire.
🌏 ASIA-PACIFIC
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💸 MIDDLE EAST
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🚢 THE AMERICAS
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Why Trump recognizing Somaliland is key to staving off China
When Americans think of Somalia, they’re likely to think of anarchy, poverty, and pirates. Somalia is one of the most anarchic countries in the world, akin to Haiti. Its government barely controls its own capital, and the countryside is overrun with Islamic terrorists.
What most Americans may not know is that Somalia has a breakaway region: Somaliland. Although it has its own government and military and is considered extremely safe (by East African standards), no countries in the world recognize it because it stands opposed to the UN-backed Somali government.
That may soon change. If reports are to be believed, President-elect Donald Trump and his circle of foreign policy advisors are considering recognizing Somaliland as a country…
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Breaking down the global power struggle in Syria
Since it began in 2011, the Syrian Civil War has become something akin to a playground for various nations. With the fall of Bashar al-Assad, that conflict has not ended; if anything, his fall has accelerated foreign activity in the conflict.
When Assad came close to losing power in the early 2010s, the Russians propped him up and saved his regime. In exchange, they got two military bases along the country’s east coast, which allowed them to expand their reach into Africa.
Around that same time, the Islamic State began its rampage across Iraq and Syria. This attracted fighters from around the world — and likewise prompted a major response…