Illegal Migration is Stifling Red States’ Electoral Advantage

_WHAT’S HAPPENING_

Recent census data have revealed that illegal migration is significantly altering the expected redistribution of congressional seats and Electoral College votes following the 2030 census.

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, left-leaning states saw a mass exodus of their populations to red states. As a result, states like Florida and Texas are on track to gain multiple new Electoral College delegates and seats in the House of Representatives.

However, former President Joe Biden’s influx of millions of illegal migrants is softening the blow to blue states.

_THE FACTS_

• The US Census determines the distribution of 435 House seats and Electoral College votes every 10 years.

• The initial Electoral College projections for 2030 showed that the GOP would win a majority of the electoral vote without needing to win any of the “blue wall” states.

• President Donald Trump’s 2020 executive order to exclude illegal migrants from the census was reversed by Biden.

• From 2023-2024, New York City saw a net loss of native-born residents. However, its population increased by 87,000 due to an influx of illegal migrants.

• New York and Michigan are now projected to lose fewer seats, or none at all, than they otherwise would have if not for significant population boosts from illegals.

• California has an estimated 2 million illegal migrants and may have retained up to a total of 10 extra House seats since 1980 because of them.

• Originally projected to lose five Electoral College seats, California is now only slated to lose four.

• Red states like Georgia and Tennessee are likely to be shortchanged despite population growth because they receive fewer illegal migrants.

• Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-TN) is reintroducing the Equal Representation Act, which would require a citizenship question on the census and exclude noncitizens from apportionment.

• Senate Democrats have blocked the bill multiple times.

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