Independents May Side With Trump After All

• Kamala Harris is far more unfavorable with independent voters than Donald Trump

• Some swing state independents are narrowly siding with Harris, although they tend to align more closely with Trump on key issues

• Liberal older voters may be oversampled in the polling data

The story

New polling indicates that Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris is facing challenges in maintaining support from independent voters. The latest Gallup survey, conducted in the first half of September, reveals that voters overall view both Harris and her Republican opponent, Donald Trump, unfavorably.

However, this election — as have most in modern American history — will come down to undecided voters in counties scattered across roughly seven swing states. Currently, Kamala Harris is performing worse with undecided voters on a national level than Trump, though Trump is facing his own challenges in key swing states.

Among independents across the country, only 35 percent have a favorable view of Harris, compared to 44 percent for Trump. Harris is 25 points underwater with this critical demographic, as 60 percent of independents hold an unfavorable view of her.

These kinds of numbers not only signal a candidate who has failed to rally Americans to her cause, but they also show no significant bump following her debate performance.

Mixed poll results

In a new poll from one of the most crucial swing states, Pennsylvania, Kamala Harris has taken a notable lead among independent voters. Although the poll only surveyed 125 independents, it showed Harris leading the former president by 13 points.

It is also notable that Harris did not surpass the 50 percent mark, a threshold often seen by election analysts as a sign of weak or unstable support when missed.

On the other hand, recent data from NPR/PBS News/Marist reveals considerable gains for Donald Trump among independents and Latino voters.

The national poll, conducted just before the presidential debate, showed Trump leading Harris by three points among independents, marking a 14-point swing from August when he trailed her by 11 points. This improvement coincides with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s withdrawal from the race and endorsement of Trump.

On the issues and skewed samples

The data on independent voters’ policy preferences also sheds light on how they might vote in November’s elections, including down-ballot races.

A recent Quinnipiac poll shows Donald Trump leading with voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on who is better for the economy and immigration. But, when asked who they supported for president, independents in PA and MI slightly backed Harris.

Additionally, when asked about mass deportations of illegal migrants, 86 percent of Republicans and 58 percent of independents either "strongly" or "somewhat" supported the idea. Only 25 percent of Democrats agreed.

There may also be some reason to believe liberal seniors are being oversampled in the polling, potentially skewing the data towards Harris. Donald Trump won the senior vote by around 10 points in 2016 and by around four points in 2020.

Now, certain data show that Harris is massively outperforming with seniors in swing states like Pennsylvania, at rates far higher than both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden won in 2016 and 2020, respectively. It would be very unlikely for this demographic, often considered stable in their voting patterns, to swing so dramatically.

Why it matters

Ultimately, if state polling errors are anything similar to what they were in 2016 and 2020, and if liberal seniors are being oversampled, Trump is likely to win.

A strong turnout from non-college-educated whites and young men — groups that typically don’t vote in large numbers — will also significantly boost Trump's chances of victory.

Overall, the election is, by all counts, extraordinarily close. But after the most recent assassination attempt on Donald Trump, it’s clear there is still potential for any number of twists that could impact support for either candidate.