India Strikes a Middle Path

• India’s leader recently visited Vladimir Putin, upsetting many in the West

• Modi has repeatedly sought to strike his own path, staying close to the United States while also buying Russian weapons

• Much of his actions may be driven by concerns over Chinese encroachment into disputed borders

The story

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently caused a stir with a visit to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Some, like Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, were furious about the trip, which came one day after a Russian strike on a children’s hospital in Kyiv.

Zelenskyy called it a “huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts.” Others, like former Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, seemed genuinely perplexed about why Modi would be traveling to Russia to meet with Putin.

India occupies a unique place in the current world order, and always has since its independence in 1948. In the Cold War, it was a member of the Non-Aligned Movement, which was a group of nations that refused to take part in either Western or communist military alliances. Post-Cold War, it is still a member of that bloc, though the meaning of non-aligned has weakened, as the bloc now includes American allies like Saudi Arabia and has Russia and China as member states.

However, it always stood apart from most of the countries in the Non-Aligned movement, many of which were small and relatively weak countries. It gained nuclear weapons in the 1970s and, last year, it became the world’s most populous country.

India’s population is primarily Hindu but has a sizable Muslim minority — about 200 million out of 1.4 billion. This demographic composition has often led to civil strife, which has provided political opportunities for Prime Minister Modi.

Due to India’s internal challenges and history, Modi’s governance style can be broadly characterized as pragmatic. His first priority is India’s needs, which means his alignment —whether with the West or its adversaries — depends entirely on the circumstances.

America’s approach

When former President Donald Trump was in office, India and the United States had extremely close ties. Reports indicated that Trump and Modi had a close personal relationship, indicated by their actions: Modi effectively endorsed Trump for re-election in 2020 in Texas at an event dubbed “Howdy Modi,” calling him a “true friend.” Likewise, Trump attended a state banquet and a massive rally in India at a sequel event the Indian government called “Namaste Trump.”

Their close personal relationship was also reflected in the foreign policies of both countries: Trump’s conservative administration, which had somewhat of a realist approach to foreign policy, did not nitpick Modi over his internal affairs, be it the treatment of Muslims or the conduct of their foreign policy.

The liberal administration of President Biden, by contrast, publicly weighed sanctioning India in 2022 for buying Russian weapons. And while Biden hosted Modi for a state dinner in 2023, his administration again threatened India with sanctions, this time for trade with Iran. They have also consistently critiqued India behind the scenes on what they have described as democratic backsliding.

Beyond the headlines

India has tried to pursue a middle path, keeping contacts open with both the West and Russia. There are many reasons for this, but one primary reason could be India’s long-held concerns over China. The two states have a history of distrust and even fought a war in the early 1960s. Since then, there have been continued border disputes, and China even deployed troops to territory claimed by India in 2020.

It was likely not an accident that Modi recently visited Vladimir Putin on the same day as a regional gathering attended by Chinese President Xi Jinping. Russia has a long history of providing weapons and aid to India, having done so during the Cold War and in previous decades.

Modi would likely be happy to use American or Western weapons as well — but the problem for him is that the United States, particularly under the administration of President Joe Biden, has not been a reliable partner.

Westerners like McFaul cannot understand why Modi would bear-hug Putin because they view the world through a lens of “democracy vs. autocracy,” an echo of President George W. Bush’s “You are with us, or you are with the terrorists.”

Since gaining independence from British rule, India has rapidly emerged as a major global player due to its vast population and willingness to invest in its technological and economic growth. Ultimately, Modi’s approach is pragmatic, prioritizing India’s interests. He collaborates with Russia when it benefits the Indian people, while also maintaining diplomatic and economic ties with the U.S. and the EU whenever those relationships prove advantageous.

Why it matters

India is unquestionably going to play a major role going forward. It has internal disputes, but —provided it is able to solve them — it could begin to throw its weight around internationally. Its economic might and huge population make it a crucial consumer base for economies around the globe while also being able to contribute hugely to outside nations through its exports and innovations.

With India's willingness to maintain friendly relations with all sides, the anticipated bipolar confrontation between China and the United States could potentially become tripolar.