Israel’s Hostage Crisis Is Pushing Netanyahu to the Brink

The murder of six hostages, including one American, by Hamas has mostly derailed ceasefire talks which, until recently, seemed as if they may have borne fruit. As one Israeli official admitted, “The hostages being killed changed everything.”

The White House seems to have a different view. President Joe Biden condemned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for not working hard enough to secure a deal on the hostages, though the president failed to explain what more Netanyahu should be doing.

His administration, even with the recent killings, is planning on unveiling what they have called a “take-it-or-leave-it” deal for a ceasefire. A failure by both sides to accept the proposal could mean the collapse of the American-led negotiations.

But it is not just the United States that has been pressuring Netanyahu — across the Atlantic, the new left-wing Labour government in Britain has banned the export of weapons to Israel after its Foreign Office concluded that the weapons may be used in “war crimes.”

The UK’s Israel weapon sales pale in comparison to America’s — the US provides Israel with 68 percent of its foreign weaponry, followed by Germany at 28 percent — but the symbolism is important. The United Kingdom is one of five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and, under the previous Conservative Party government, had been a major backer of Israel.

One major sticking point in the hostage deal is the Philadelphi corridor — a thin strip of land that comprises the border between Gaza and Egypt. Israel’s government is insisting that they be allowed to continue to occupy some of the corridor, viewing it as important to their security.

While there are some reports that Israeli ceasefire negotiators have consented to withdraw from some of the corridor, it is uncertain whether this will hold. This is because of the third pressure point on Netanyahu: the home front.

Last week, nearly 700,000 people protested in Tel Aviv against Netanyahu’s government and for a hostage deal. While the media made hay of this, the protests are nothing new: ever since Netanyahu’s government was established in late 2022, it has been met with left-wing protests in the left-wing city. The real pressure on Netanyahu is likely to come from his right flank.

Netanyahu’s government is a multi-party coalition of center-right and hard-right parties, some of which are strongly against the hostage negotiations or pulling out of Gaza at all. National Security Minister Ben Gvir recently said that he was working to end the talks.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich argued against a hostage deal in July. Although opposition parties in Israel’s parliament are likely to support a deal, they could withdraw from Netanyahu’s government if angered. With Netanyahu’s slim majority of 64 out of 120 seats, even one party pulling out could cause his government to collapse.

Support for Israel in America was once relatively bipartisan, but the past few years have seen that rapidly change. While a July poll found that a narrow plurality of Americans oppose Israel’s actions in Gaza, Republican support for Israel stood at 76 percent, whereas Democratic support was at only 23 percent.

While Vice President Kamala Harris took a moderately pro-Israel stance at last month’s DNC, reporting indicates that as president she would be tougher on Israel than Joe Biden or her opponent, former President Donald Trump.

While she ruled out blocking arms sales to Israel in an interview, she seemingly left the door open to putting more restrictions on aid, saying that while Israel has a right to defend itself, “how it does so matters.”

Donald Trump, by contrast, is highly unlikely to do anything to block Israel from pursuing its campaign in Gaza. In his debate with President Biden, he said that the United States should get out of Israel’s way; recently, he blamed the White House for the deaths of the hostages.

The hostage negotiation saga has been represented in the media as if both Israel and Hamas are equally at fault; reading the mainstream media, one gets the feeling that Netanyahu has been intransigent.

But Netanyahu has been remarkably open to discussions, as he highlighted in a speech earlier this week, and Israel has conditionally accepted past ceasefire proposals, including President Biden’s.

Hamas, which started the current war with a brutal massacre that left nearly 1,200 Israelis dead, wants any deal to put back into place the pre-war status quo: in exchange for the remaining hostages, they want Israel out of Gaza and significant numbers of Palestinian prisoners released. This is a non-starter for Benjamin Netanyahu.

The impasse between the two sides is unlikely to be resolved while Joe Biden is still in office. If Donald Trump wins, it is possible that Hamas, understanding that the war is unwinnable, may become more open to an acceptable ceasefire deal.

But if Kamala Harris wins and joins her left-wing British allies in making the war tougher for Israel, Hamas may believe that they have the advantage — and may press Israel for an agreement more advantageous for them.

As Netanyahu faces mounting pressure from his left-wing American and British allies, he must navigate a delicate balance — addressing their humanitarian concerns while remaining resolute in his mission to eliminate the Hamas threat.