MAGA’s Last Stand Against the Bureaucracy

What’s happening: The 2024 presidential election is even more important than most realize. Abortion, immigration, and gun rights remain significant issues — But this election will have long-lasting implications, and they’re going under the public’s radar.

Why it matters: This election outcome could determine the fate of the MAGA movement as the leading force in the GOP. But more importantly, who really governs America for decades to come.

Trump’s movement: Populist movements have survived losing elections. Andrew Jackson, America’s first populist, lost his first run for the presidency, only to go on to shape America’s government for decades. But populist movements often cannot sustain two losses back-to-back.

• If Trump wins: Trump is looking electable. Victory means his “America first” ideology could dominate the GOP for decades, much as Reagan’s did with his successful completion of two terms.

• If Trump loses: His movement and supporters will still play a role, but by 2028 Republicans may be looking for a less theatrical (and potentially easier) way back to power.

A powerful second term: Hiring of low-level bureaucrats typically does not factor into presidential elections. But Trump’s plan — called Schedule F — could rework the federal bureaucracy. It would enable him to reclassify up to 50,000 government workers as political appointees, meaning he could fire them at will.

• Mostly Democrats: In 2020, federal workers in cabinet departments donated overwhelmingly toward Democrats: at the Department of Justice, 87.5% of donations went to Democrats. At the FCC, the number was over 99%.

Federal workers have a huge influence on policy to slow or hinder presidential prerogatives. They also hire permanent workers under them, allowing their influence to last longer than a single presidential term. This makes Schedule F one of Trump’s most critical moves if implemented.