Muslims Could Sway the 2024 Election

Written by Nate Hochman

What’s happening: President Joe Biden’s pro-Israel posture has provoked white-hot anger from Muslims in the Democratic Party base. Muslims tend to be loyal Democratic voters, but a growing number of community leaders are warning that the White House’s support for Israel is alienating its Arab constituents.

The numbers: The Arab American Institute found that 59 percent of Arabs voted for Biden in 2020. On Tuesday, a new survey from the same group found that this support had plummeted to 17 percent — a staggering 42-point drop.

Why it matters: The Muslim activist group Emgage reported that less than 1.1 million Muslims voted in 2020 — a fraction of the estimated 158 million ballots cast. But Muslim overrepresentation in a number of key swing states might still be enough to swing the 2024 election.

• Arizona is home to just under 110,000 Muslims. Biden won the state by around 10,500 votes.

• Georgia’s Muslim population is roughly 123,000. Biden carried the state by less than 12,000 votes.

• In Michigan, the number of Muslims is estimated at 240,000. Biden’s margin of victory there in 2020 was about 150,000 votes.

Note: The GOP is more supportive of Israel than Biden. So while Muslim voters might be souring on the president, that doesn’t necessarily mean that they’ll vote Republican.

And yet: Even if Muslims simply stayed home, it would deal a major blow to Biden. In a close race, the loss of a key swing-state voting bloc could end his shot at a second term.