Poland’s Stunning Rise to Economic and Military Dominance

• Poland struggled acutely after defeating communism. Today, it has a strong economy and a burgeoning military.

• Much of that success is because Poland’s foreign policy is essentially bipartisan.

• As Poland continues to grow in strength, its neighbors — even current allies — may feel threatened.

The story

For much of the last 100 years, Poland was not considered a major player in Europe. Having been steamrolled by the Nazis in less than a month, the country spent the subsequent fifty years under occupation — first German and then Soviet. When it gained freedom in 1989, it was just another impoverished post-communist state.

Today it has one of the fastest-growing economies in the EU, has gone through multiple peaceful transfers of democracy, and is on course to possess the largest, most powerful army in Europe.

From the onset of its independence, Poland's governments — including the communist regime that recognized its impending end — passed laws to significantly ease the path to entrepreneurship. Regulations were relaxed and market access improved, making it easier for individuals to establish businesses. The commitment to free markets persisted, even amid the initial economic shocks that all post-communist states encountered in the early 1990s.

While Poland made great strides, it was still a developing country as of the mid-2010s. In 2015, the average Polish paycheck was about one-third of neighboring Germany.

This resulted in the rise of the populist Law and Justice party (shortened to “PiS” in Polish), which won 2015 elections on the promise of a more socially conservative but slightly more economically left policy, including increasing pensions and providing more support for parents.

After eight years in power, PiS lost last year to Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform, which had been in charge before PiS took over in 2015. While Tusk has pursued different policies than PiS, he continued one of its main initiatives: becoming the strongest army in Europe.

When PiS gained power, it started buying weapons from as many allies as would sell them — from South Korea to France to the United States. When Tusk took over, he kept and expanded PiS deals involving the military.

Poland’s political consensus

Poland is now a flourishing democracy with an unbroken string of elections since its independence. One secret to its success is that both sides of its political spectrum are on the right. Center-left parties can only attain power as the junior partner in coalitions with larger conservative parties.

The incumbent government is a coalition comprised of multiple center-left and right parties. PiS is its main opposition; other opposition parties include the significantly further-right nationalist Confederation party.

The remarkable aspect of Polish politics, however, is that its parties are relatively united on foreign policy issues. While they have some differences — Tusk’s Civic Platform is far more amenable to the European Union than PiS, for example — they are in near-lockstep on major issues, namely how to handle Russia.

Poland is extremely skeptical of its eastern (and, because of Russia’s exclave Kaliningrad, northern) neighbor. Only two percent of Poles view Russia favorably, a near-unanimity rarely reached in any country. In Poland, it is politically impossible to be pro-Russia or even somewhat open to being Russia friendly.

This loathing of Russia revealed itself in the country’s response to the Russo-Ukrainian War. Poland became one of Ukraine’s biggest backers: the PiS government sent representatives there constantly, and Tusk has continued that strong support.

Poland allowed itself to be used as a staging ground for incoming weapons and, under PiS, took in nearly one million refugees — a stark shift from Poland’s bipartisan negative attitude toward Middle Eastern refugees.

The rocky road ahead

Poland’s desire to become the most powerful country in Europe stems from its brutal history. For hundreds of years, one empire after the other dismembered the country, occupied its lands, and killed its citizens. It has historically spent far more time occupied than free.

But Poland’s present rearmament, once the Russo-Ukrainian War wanes, may raise eyebrows even among its allies. Before Russia’s rise, Poland was one of the continent's largest and most powerful states, and its borders extended much further than the current perimeter. However, Poland will likely not launch a war of aggression.

Poland’s frictions with neighboring states have become apparent in smaller operations. It recently replaced road signs leading to Russian-controlled Kaliningrad with its Polish name, hearkening back to when Poland once governed that city.

Poland’s enemies aren’t alone in provoking strife. In 2023, a public disagreement between Poland and Ukraine erupted over the flooding of Polish markets with cheaper Ukrainian grain.

Polish truckers blocked the border for months. Even when Tusk — who is friendlier toward Ukraine — won power again, it took some time to reach a deal. Confederation has also complained about the amount of money spent on Ukrainian refugees.

Why it matters

Much of Eastern Europe's borders were solidified by the World Wars, but they weren't always fixed, nor must they remain so. Irredentism — the desire to reclaim former territories — is strong in the region, with Hungary's Viktor Orbán and the Romanians signaling ambitions to expand borders.

However, these countries lack the military power to enforce territorial claims. Poland, on the other hand, is building a military that could potentially support such endeavors.

As Poland rapidly expands its economy and military, it verges on becoming one of the most powerful players on the continent. And with Russia pushing into Ukraine and eyeing westward expansion, Poland’s growth may no longer be optional.