Pressure To Bring Ukraine Into NATO Grows As War Reaches A New, Serious, Phase

Pressure mounts for Ukrainian NATO membership: North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) foreign ministers convened in Norway on Thursday, gearing up for a yearly summit amid mounting demands for explicit security guarantees and membership prospects for Ukraine. At a Slovakian conference on Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron declared that Kyiv deserves “something concrete” regarding future progression of the idea. The United Kingdom’s prime minister also chimed in on Thursday, saying that Ukraine’s “rightful place” is in NATO.

Remember: The root of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is largely attributed to Ukraine's Western alliances; Russia sees its potential NATO membership as an existential threat that would be crossing a fine line. America recognizes this tension and has avoided discussing Ukraine's inclusion in the military alliance to prevent escalation.

The significance: Ukraine's inclusion in NATO would mean that any attack on it compels fellow NATO members to retaliate. Were Ukraine currently a member, America might be directly engaged in the conflict rather than just providing support and pressuring other nations. Advocates argue that this move would halt Putin's territorial expansion while detractors worry of the dangers of the multinational conflict that supporters are so eager to see.

The war has fundamentally changed

The drone strikes that hit Moscow's affluent districts on Tuesday night, which Russia and the U.S. attribute to Ukraine, marked a stark shift in the Russo-Ukrainian War. The unexpected eight drone strikes, for which Kyiv has disavowed any responsibility, were the first strikes against Russian civilians in the capital since the war's outset. Fifteen months into the conflict, Ukraine remains resilient despite Putin's bombardment, which has resulted in civilian deaths for Ukraine as well.

Ukraine also recently admitted, after a long period of denial, that its military intelligence was indeed responsible for a sequence of attempted assassinations in Russia.

Will China enter the conflict? U.S. authorities anticipate that a Ukrainian strike on a critical strategic site or figure in Russia could potentially provide China with a pretext to escalate its involvement and supply lethal aid to Russia. China might seize on Ukrainian offensives within Russian territory to portray NATO as the belligerent party and justify increased assistance to Russia.

Nuclear weapons? There's a school of thought suggesting that the only effective countermeasure Russia could deploy against a Ukraine supported by American arms and funding is nuclear weaponry. Recent declarations and interviews indicate that Russia perceives itself under an existential threat—a circumstance that could justify nuclear weapon utilization under Russian foreign policy.