RFK Jr. Siphons Votes from Both Candidates

What’s happening: An NBC News poll recently found former Democrat Robert F. Kennedy Jr. winning a substantial 13 percent of the vote, siphoning support from both Trump and Biden.

• The numbers: When presented with a ballot including Kennedy — instead of a head-to-head between Trump and Biden — 15 percent of Trump voters defected to RFK Jr., while only 7 percent of Biden voters deserted him.

Why it matters: While RFK Jr. remains a long shot to win the White House, the activist could swing the election by milking enough votes from one of the candidates.

Republicans concerns: The GOP originally celebrated Kennedy’s presidential run, confident that the former Democrat would draw more votes from Biden than Trump. But amid perturbing poll results, Republicans are highlighting Kennedy’s long history of left-wing stances on gun control, abortion, and environmentalism.

Still a problem for Democrats: Kennedy’s vaccine skepticism garnered fans on the right, but reminding voters of his litany of left-wing positions could help him attract disaffected young voters.

• Hispanics: Polls indicate that Kennedy fares well with young Hispanic voters, a must-win constituency for Biden. In Nevada — which has not voted for a Republican president in 20 years — RFK Jr. is winning 21 percent of young Hispanics, leaving Biden trailing Trump.

• Remember: Third-party candidates have a history of swinging elections. In 2000 and in 2016, Green Party candidates won more votes in key swing states than the margin between the winning Republican and the losing Democrat.