The Right Gains in European Parliamentary Elections

The story

Every five years, voters across the European Union elect representatives to Parliament, which meets in Brussels and Strasbourg. Like America’s House of Representatives, the European Parliament is proportioned by population; the more people a member state houses, the more representatives it elects.

Unlike the House, Parliament is relatively weak, requiring the assent of national leaders for major decisions. Still, it is a useful measuring stick to gauge voter sentiment.

Election results indicate that voters are frustrated. Across Europe, right-of-center parties and populist-right parties found success. Austria’s Freedom Party became the first populist-right party to win that country since 1945. Germany’s top two finishers were center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and populist-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). The governing Social Democratic Party was reduced to third place.

In France, the populist-right National Rally won 30 seats and ties CDU for the most representatives a single party will send to the upcoming parliament. Meanwhile, the election was so disastrous for French President Emmanuel Macron’s party (which won less than half of the National Rally’s vote) that he immediately called snap parliamentary elections.

Another major story is the collapse of Green Parties around the continent, which surged in 2019. Their collapse threatens chances that their “Green New Deal” will be implemented.

The politics

Marine Le Pen, the leading figure in France’s National Rally, welcomed Macron’s decision to call parliamentary elections, saying she wished to “put an end to this painful epoch of globalism.” Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, a populist-conservative who built alliances with moderates, posted “Grazie!” after results confirmed her party’s dramatic improvement from previous elections.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, a member of center-right EPP Group, said “the center is holding” and promised to seek compromise, though she has not ruled out working with Meloni and her allies.

The leader of Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, parliament’s center-left bloc, said she was ready to “work with the pro-European and democratic majority.” Leaders of the Greens’ parliamentary group were mum.

Beyond the headlines

The rise of the populist right can be attributed to many factors, from opposition to vague E.U. powers to radical Green overreach. But the primary factor is the migrant crisis.

The crisis tapered off in the early 2020s before surging again the past two years. In 2023, over 1 million people requested asylum in Europe — a seven-year high.

As Donald Trump said, while some are good people, many are bringing crime. In 2023, 100 percent of serious sexual assault cases in Frankfurt were committed by non-Germans.

Shortly before the election, a police officer was killed by an Afghan migrant in a stabbing spree that injured five others. In Austria, a migrant youth gang sexually abused a 12-year-old girl for months. In Italy, a 13-year-old girl was gang-raped by seven Egyptian migrants.

Why it matters

Steve Bannon, Donald Trump’s Senior Counselor in the White House, long desired to see right-populists win in Europe because he believed that success would bounce back across the Atlantic. European Parliament results could indicate a positive outcome for Donald Trump in November, as Americans face a significant migrant crisis of their own.