The South China Sea Is Key To Expanding Chinese Dominance

• The South China Sea is a disputed body of water southeast of Asia, stretching from southern China to Indonesia

• The region is a critical geo-strategic area and economic center point, with vast natural resources

• China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, and others claim portions of the sea

The story

In mid-July, Russia and China sent warships into the South China Sea. At face value, this would not appear particularly vexing: countries routinely patrol territorial waters with warships, and it is not uncommon to invite allies as a show of friendship or support.

The problem is that these are not China’s territorial waters — not formally. The South China Sea is one of the most contested regions in the globe. Most disputed areas, such as Ukraine’s Donbas region, are relatively small and are claimed by two or three states.

The South China Sea is immense; at just over 1.4 million square miles, it covers the equivalent of nearly 50 percent of the contiguous United States. And that immense region is claimed by multiple parties: China claims it all, while Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Taiwan also lay claim to parts of the sea.

Currently, China is hemmed in by three “island chains.” The first runs from Japan and Taiwan down to the north of the Philippines, farther down to northern Indonesia, and back up to Vietnam. The second and third island chains are progressively larger, with the third including Hawaii. By having allies in key segments of all of those chains, America keeps China contained.

The sea is a critical trading area. One study concludes that up to 33 percent of all global trade intersects the region. China does not claim the entire area for that reason alone, although economic factors are a consideration.

China’s control of the sea is crucial in its aim to displace the United States as the most powerful and influential country in the world. Maintaining control over the entire South China Sea would secure Chinese access to the sea’s rich oil reserves and strategic military locations, and would establish its superiority over its Asian neighbors.

If China succeeds in asserting claims over the South China Sea and manages to disrupt even one strategic chokepoint — such as taking control of Taiwan — it could significantly expand its regional and world dominance.

The politics

Practically all sides of the American political spectrum agree on the need to contain China. How to accomplish it varies significantly, and often breaks the normal political coalitions.

Much of the GOP has moved away from support for interventionism — more common in the Bush era. However, China is a glaring exception to that rule: many who normally oppose interventionism, like former president Donald Trump, are strict on China and supportive of Taiwan; in 2016, Trump became the first president-elect to speak with a Taiwanese president.

Elbridge Colby, former Trump administration official and potential National Security Advisor under a second Trump term, argues that America should send more weaponry to support the first island chain instead of to Ukraine, contending that “If we tie down or expend forces in Europe, they will be unavailable for the first island chain, inviting a Chinese assault.”

President Joe Biden portrays his administration as having successfully pushed back China, claiming, “When I came to office, the conventional wisdom was that China would inevitably … surpass the United States. That's not the case anymore.”

Vice President and Democrat presidential nominee Kamala Harris shares President Biden’s view; she is seen as supportive of Taiwan.

Beyond the headlines

The fundamental difficulty in keeping China out of the South China Sea is that it is, geographically, its backyard. The equivalent is keeping the United States out of the Caribbean or the eastern Pacific.

There are so many small islands — and where there are none, China built new ones — that it’s virtually impossible to keep China from encroaching. The U.S. manages to keep China in check with its immense military might and influence. But that will not last forever.

One difficulty that most pro-Taiwanese Americans wrestle with is Taiwan being incredibly resistant to spending its own money on defense. In April, Colby visited Taiwan and penned an op-ed in a Taiwanese newspaper in which he urged leaders to spend significantly more. Currently, defense spending projections are only 2.5 percent of the GDP — miniscule compared to China’s.

Taiwan’s reasoning might mirror Europe’s; the EU has historically neglected to prioritize its own defense. Because Taiwan is strategically crucial to America’s economy and military defense, America will defend it regardless.

But if Taiwan remains obstinate in neglecting its military, future U.S. presidential administrations may determine they can get more bang for their buck elsewhere in Asia.

Why it matters

A majority of Americans believe China is the greatest threat to America. There is no other country that comes close, militarily or economically, to challenging the United States.

Preventing China from using soft power to expand influence around the world has proven difficult enough. How the U.S. will thwart China’s use of hard power in its own backyard is another question.

If China makes the South China Sea its own, it will possess exponentially greater control over international trade and will more easily threaten American allies — like the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan. Exertion of military and economic pressure could transform China’s Western-aligned neighbors into neutral or pro-Chinese states.