The State of the Primaries

Biden won’t be on the New Hampshire ballot and Trump is facing a surging challenger. But they both remain the likely nominees.

What’s happening: The Republican and Democrat primaries are quickly approaching, and the two frontrunners — President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump — still have a few hurdles to jump before possibly becoming their party’s nominees.

Biden’s ballot trouble: Biden will not appear on the New Hampshire primary ballot due to an internal dispute in the DNC over which state should vote first. This means a win in the state is not a given despite his 30-point lead in the polls. A grassroots push to write in Biden is attempting to save him from a potential upset with former Congressman Dean Phillips.

  • However: Biden enjoys a 60-point lead nationally. Even if he were to lose New Hampshire, the likelihood of him losing the primary to Phillips or Marianne Williamson is incredibly low.

  • Remember: The New Hampshire primary will be held on January 23, 2024.

Republican primary: Nikki Haley has emerged as a serious candidate, as she just raised $24 million in the 4th quarter of 2023, has now passed Ron DeSantis in national polling, and is attacking former President Trump directly. She is surging in New Hampshire, breaking the 30 percent mark in some polls, and is in a solid second place in other early states.

  • At the same time: Trump remains dominant nationally, with a more than 50-point lead. He is also leading by between 20 and 30 points in each of the first three primary states. Unless something dramatic shifts, he will be the Republican nominee.

  • Important: The Iowa GOP Caucuses will be held on January 15, 2024.

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