The Power Struggle In Russia Reveals Itself

What happened: Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group mercenaries, publicly condemned Putin's regime for its mishandling of the Ukraine conflict, alleging Russian military officials ordered strikes that resulted in thousands of their own casualties. Putin then accused him of planning a rebellion, after which Prigozhin mobilized thousands of troops toward Moscow. This spurred Putin to declare martial law and liken the situation to the 1917 revolution's coup, denouncing it as a major threat to Russian stability.

Backdrop

• Yevgeny Prigozhin leads the Wagner Group, a private paramilitary group that has been a significant force in Putin's military strategies, including in Ukraine, but also previously in Syria, Libya, and other African conflicts.

• Prigozhin accused the Russian military of withholding ammunition and supplies from his fighters, signaling a power struggle between the Wagner group and the Russian military establishment.

• Prigozhin publicly voiced his belief that the war is a money-making scheme orchestrated by oligarchs who have exploited Putin into engaging in warfare for their own wealth and power accumulation.

• The less capable but more loyal Russian military is being favored over the effective Wagner Group in the conflict. Casualty estimates suggest over 100,000 Russian soldiers have been lost since the war began.

Bloodless: When the Wagner Group was only 125 miles from Moscow, Putin deployed his forces to protect the capital. While some clashes were reported, the conflict appeared largely bloodless, with the Belarusian president allegedly mediating a deal between Putin and Prigozhin. Under this deal, the paramilitary chief agreed to exile in Belarus. U.S. intelligence sources suggest that spy agencies had foreknowledge of Prigozhin's plans for armed action against Putin, and it's likely Putin was aware of the impending threat.

Analysis

Between the lines: As the war evolved, Russia shifted its strategy, leaning more on reserve forces and the official military and slowly phasing out the Wagner Group's role in the war. The official military is run by Putin loyalists and has seen many failures, while the Wagner Group has celebrated decisive and brutal victories. The march towards Moscow might have been a desperate power play by Prigozhin to prevent his impending relegation to less consequential conflicts.

The geopolitics: This episode also exposes Russia's instability, showcasing a power struggle between a potent paramilitary force and the national military, which culminated in a direct threat to Putin's authority and was resolved via third-party negotiation. This will likely be seen as a sign of weakness by China, which acknowledged the struggle and could consolidate Russia's position as the more vulnerable partner in the relationship.