Trump’s Historic Support Among Black Voters

• Donald Trump is seeing a surge in black voter support, potentially altering the 2024 election

• Disillusionment with the Democratic Party on economic issues and social policies is driving black men toward Trump

• Kamala Harris’ women-centered campaign is causing men to flee

The story

Donald Trump, by most available data, is on track to win a historic percentage of black voters in the 2024 election. Recent polling indicates that Vice President Kamala Harris could be on track to win the lowest percentage of black voters of any Democratic presidential candidate in over 60 years.

While Trump continues to trail Harris with black voters overall, his numbers have surged to around 15 percent support — a sharp rise compared to previous elections. This shift could dramatically alter the electoral landscape, especially in key battleground states.

There are many reasons for this shift, but a central aspect is that men, in general, are shifting toward Trump while women are shifting toward Harris — this election is promising the largest gender gap in recent history.

Harris has been making some attempts to woo black voters with targeted policies like offering up to $20,000 in forgivable loans for black entrepreneurs, creating apprenticeship opportunities, and legalizing marijuana.

Meanwhile, white women, once a key demographic for Trump, are increasingly backing Kamala Harris. Some say they regret their past support for Trump due to the Roe v. Wade reversal and Trump’s response to the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot.

The politics

On the left, Vox writer Li Zhou expressed that with black voters, there is a growing disillusionment with the Democratic Party, as many feel their economic conditions haven't improved despite years of loyalty. Additionally, she asserts that some black men are not connecting with the Democratic Party’s further left shift further left on LGBT issues.

Former President Barack Obama recently pleaded with black men to support Harris, accusing them of not supporting “the idea of having a woman as president.”

Newsweek opinion editor Batya Ungar-Sargon offered a different view, arguing that Harris’ campaign is not making an effort to appeal to men at all, and that it is a campaign by women for women. Men of all races, according to Ungar-Sargon, are turning away from Democrats because they saw better economic opportunities under Trump, whose populist policies directly benefited their financial well-being.

What the media misses

Something often missed by the media is that Donald Trump, despite being a billionaire, has appeal with working-class voters.

One 28-year-old black voter in Georgia even described Trump as “brave” following his near-assassination in Butler, Pennsylvania. He noted that he and his peers would discuss Trump being funny and that “they” are out to get him (referring to the many figures trying to assassinate him).

This voter said he is “not necessarily the biggest fan of Trump” but would vote for him over Kamala Harris.

As much as the media wants black voters to be outraged at Donald Trump’s sometimes unrefined language, many people understand when he is joking around and may even find him entertaining.

According to The New York Times, a significant number of black voters also agree with Trump’s “America First” policies and do not believe the US should be as involved in overseas affairs. The Times also suggested that black voters agree with Trump on trade, and believe that crime has gotten out of hand.

While the mainstream media fixates on Trump’s language and legal battles, many voters are simply voting on the issues affecting their quality of life.

Why it matters

If Donald Trump manages to secure the 15 percent of the black vote he is currently polling at, it could significantly alter the 2024 election outcome. This shift would suggest a realignment of voting blocs, with economic populism and personal appeal driving black men toward Trump in unprecedented numbers.

As Trump courts working-class and minority voters while Harris focuses on specifically younger, single women, this demographic swing could redefine both parties' strategies and the broader political landscape in future elections.