Trump Dreams of New York

What’s happening: Donald Trump’s campaign will target New York in November’s presidential election.

Why it matters: As New Yorkers are increasingly affected by homelessness, an explosion in illegal migrant arrivals, and violent crime, Trump wants to hold Democrats’ feet to the fire in an ambitious campaign play.

• The risk: Expanding the number of battleground states could force Democrats to spend money in places they assumed were safe. However, dreams of winning New York could distract the former president from campaigning in more winnable areas.

The trend: Although New York was once a swing state, it has not swung red since 1984. The best result a GOP presidential candidate garnered in the 21st century was 40 percent of the vote in 2004.

• Recent shifts? Republican Lee Zeldin managed to keep it close in 2022’s gubernatorial election, losing by 7 percent. For reference, Donald Trump lost New York in 2020 by 23 percent.

Love from the locals: Donald Trump recently attended the wake of a slain NYPD officer, and adoring crowds greeted him during his recent visit with a Manhattan bodega owner who defended himself from an attacker.

• Free air time: Although crowds aren’t necessarily indicative of Election Day performance, Trump aims to exploit his pervasive local news coverage.

More fertile ground? Another state Trump may target is Virginia, which voted for Biden in 2020 but went red in 2021 with the election of Governor Glenn Youngkin. Polling there is tight; whereas Biden leads Trump solidly in New York, his margin is only 4 percent in Virginia.