Trump Is Starting To Look Electable

We’re seeing a surge in popularity among nonwhite voters.

What’s happening: In a first for the 2024 election cycle, former President Donald Trump is overtaking President Joe Biden in key polls. Gains in specific voter groups suggest Trump is a strong and electable contender for 2024, as compiled by Ryan Girdusky.

Why it matters: These polls are weakening the argument of other Republican hopefuls, such Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who have claimed Trump isn’t electable and that the GOP needs alternatives.

The nonwhite surge

  • Asians: In the 2020 election, about 30 percent of Asian Americans voted Republican. Recent polls now suggest that Trump could capture up to 38 percent of this demographic. GOP messages against crime seem to be hitting home, and the influx of illegal immigrants in New York City and elsewhere is making more Asian Americans consider voting Republican.

  • Hispanics and Blacks: Trump has also gotten more popular among Hispanic and black voters. He averages 20 percent support among black voters and 42 percent among Hispanics across five polls. In 2020, he had just 8 percent of the black vote and 36 percent of the Hispanic vote.

Possible reasons why

  • The economy: Inflation may be slowing, but food prices remain high, and American wages are stagnant. More people now trust Trump over Biden to handle the economy. The "Bidenomics" message isn't connecting with voters, and if conditions don't improve, Trump's electoral prospects will.

  • The migrant crisis: The migrant crisis is affecting how people view Democratic leadership. In New York City, one of the most heavily impacted cities, polls show the gap between Trump and Biden narrowing. Trump is now only 13 points behind Biden, compared to a 23-point gap in 2020.

Zoom out: Trump and Biden nearly tied overall, but Trump still faces a challenge in swing states. The reason? While Trump's numbers are up among nonwhite voters, his support from white voters may be dropping. These are the voters who largely helped him win in 2016, so he'll need to boost his standing with this group for a solid chance in 2024.

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