_WHAT’S HAPPENING_
President Donald Trump came into office threatening large tariffs on Mexico if the country failed to halt illegal border crossings and fentanyl sales. This has forced Mexico to ramp up pressure on the various cartels, which have essentially run large parts of the country for decades. The result? Some cartel members told The New York Times that, for the first time in years, they are afraid of arrest.
_THE FACTS_
→ The White House reported last month that Customs and Border Protection (CBP) blocked 21,000 pounds of fentanyl from entering the country — with almost all of it coming from Mexico. That much fentanyl is enough to kill around 4 billion people.
→ In 2006, the Mexican government declared war on the cartels, which act as unofficial governing structures in much of the country. The cartels are famously vicious and have no qualms about killing children and politicians who oppose them.
→ In 2024 alone, 34 Mexican politicians or candidates were killed by cartel members.
→ Cartels have recently attacked and killed Americans with Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs).
→ Last month, President Trump ordered cartels to be designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, which could provide a legal basis for expanded military and intelligence operations against them.
→ Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth recently warned Mexico that the US military would take “unilateral action” against the cartels if the government did not do more.
→ The Trump administration’s tariff pressure has forced Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to crack down on the cartels. Since last October, Sheinbaum’s administration made 900 arrests, including two major Sinloan cartel figures last week.
→ Sheinbaum’s government also recently turned over high-ranking Sinloan and Juarez cartel members to the United States for prosecution.
→ But the Mexican government is still refraining from taking action against certain cartels; Breitbart reported that one cartel leader is good friends with Mexico’s secretary of national defense.
→ President Trump’s unhappiness with Mexico’s progress resulted in his announcement that he will proceed with 25 percent tariffs on Mexico (and Canada) later today.
_INSIGHTS_
Since his first term, President Trump has been consistent in his desire to see Mexico crack down on the importation of drugs into the United States. Sheinbaum’s administration has clearly had some success — drug cartel members do not often openly talk about being afraid of the Mexican government — but the cartels are so interwoven into Mexican society that it is unlikely that she could make serious, long-term dents in such a short amount of time unless the pressure intensifies even further.
With the Trump administration aware that they have fewer than four years in office, it is likely that America will ratchet up the pressure on the cartels and the Mexican government beyond just tariffs. Currently, the White House is debating whether to undertake military action in Mexico itself to fight the cartels. When asked recently what he believed was the best path to breaking their drug shipments, Trump tipped his cards, telling the interviewer, “You know what the only solution is.”
