👋 Welcome back to our exclusive weekend edition. On the world stage, the war in Ukraine is entering a new phase of combat. It also comes at a time when allies are pushing harder to bring Ukraine into NATO, which could have serious consequences. In America, the battle for the 2024 GOP primary candidacy intensifies, with DeSantis starting to fire back at Trump. Plus, a glimpse of what America could look like after the death of affirmative action (which is likely coming soon.)

—Ari

🇺🇸 2024 War Room

DeSantis’ recent attacks on Trump and their significance for the GOP primary

Following a period of downplaying frequent criticism from former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis seized an opportunity during his tour through early primary states to retaliate, no longer shying away from attacking his top GOP rival.

On past decisions:

• Pandemic: Governor DeSantis said that Trump effectively handed control to Dr. Anthony Fauci amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

• Amnesty: DeSantis claimed Trump had supported and tried to “ram” through a congressional bill providing amnesty.

• The wall: DeSantis pledged to accomplish what his predecessor couldn't, committing to the completion of the border wall between the U.S. and Mexico.

• Crime: DeSantis took issue with Trump’s bipartisan criminal justice reform bill, characterizing it as a “jailbreak bill” that effectively released dangerous individuals from prison.

• ”Red flag” laws: DeSantis critiqued Trump's 2018 suggestion of confiscating firearms from individuals who may pose a threat before a court validates the claims against them. This proposal infringes upon several sections of the Constitution, DeSantis argued.

• Mail-in voting: DeSantis contends that Trump damaged his own 2020 campaign by actively discouraging his supporters from using mail-in ballots. He pledges not to repeat this misstep in his own campaign.

• Election interference and censorship: DeSantis emphasizes that the “election interference” perpetrated by social media platforms, in collaboration with federal agencies, all occurred under Trump's administration. He insists that he never would have allowed such a situation to occur and that Trump “didn’t have control over his own agencies.”

What else?

Wokeness: Earlier this week, Trump distanced himself from the term "woke," arguing that Republicans are overusing it. During a campaign stop in Iowa, Trump told his audience that many of those who use the term “can't even define it.” DeSantis suggested that Trump doesn’t really understand the “existential threat” of wokeness.

Governor DeSantis took a different stance, firmly asserting his understanding of the concept. He called it a form of cultural Marxism and expressed concern that identity politics are superseding merit and achievement. He argues that Florida, under his leadership, has put itself at the forefront of this battle, becoming a place where wokeness meets its end.

Lame duck won’t work: Governor DeSantis anticipates that achieving meaningful conservative goals might require eight years — a timeline infeasible for Trump, who can serve only one more term if reelected. The federal bureaucrats conservatives are targeting, he says, will simply “wait you out if you’re a lame-duck president.” Trump, meanwhile, claims that the task would take a mere six months. “Why didn’t he do it in his first four years?” DeSantis told a reporter in response.

Is any of this working? Despite DeSantis’ attacks, Trump has managed to widen his lead over DeSantis and other GOP contenders in recent months. However, this is only the beginning of their fight ahead of what is already a contentious primary.

⚡️ Quick Hits

💰 Wall Street looks for a candidate: A potential Biden-Trump rematch is finding little appetite on Wall Street. While Biden's stability and appointments such as Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo appeal to them, his strong antitrust agenda dampens enthusiasm among those who rely on corporate transactions for profit. Conversely, Trump's second term could bring lower taxes and less regulation, typical from Republicans, yet his unpredictability may destabilize global markets. DeSantis doesn't fare well either, partly due to his intensifying legal standoff with Disney. Some on Wall Street even want JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon to run.

🙋‍♀️ Women care more about the economy than “sexual misconduct”: The recent civil verdict from New York that held Trump liable for sexual abuse seems to have left many Trump voters unfazed in a critical swing county in Pennsylvania. The reactions from over a dozen women interviewed in the days following the verdict ranged from nonchalance — attributing Trump's actions as typical high-status male behavior — to suspicions of the allegations being a larger Democratic plot to undermine the former president.

• What really matters? Most of the female interviewees indicated that, if the general election were held today, they would vote for Trump over President Joe Biden. Much of this stems from a strong aversion towards Biden and greater concerns over economic issues.

✅ DeSantis changes Florida rules to run: Florida elections officials previously banned transferring funds to federal super PACs. In March, however, the Florida State Department adjusted its guidelines so that such payments are now acceptable. The change came just months ahead of DeSantis’ official 2024 announcement.

🇺🇦 Trump & DeSantis aligned on Ukraine: In an interview with Newsmax, DeSantis responded to Trump's claim that he could resolve the Ukraine war within 24 hours. DeSantis said that while it's unlikely the conflict could be ended so swiftly - acknowledging Trump's tendency for "rhetorical flourishes" - he does agree with the former president's inclination towards reaching a peaceful settlement over allowing the situation to devolve into a drawn-out war or even escalate further, given Russia's formidable nuclear arsenal.

🌐 Geopolitics

Pressure to bring Ukraine into NATO grows as war reaches a new, serious, phase

Pressure mounts for Ukrainian NATO membership: North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) foreign ministers convened in Norway on Thursday, gearing up for a yearly summit amid mounting demands for explicit security guarantees and membership prospects for Ukraine. At a Slovakian conference on Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron declared that Kyiv deserves “something concrete” regarding future progression of the idea. The United Kingdom’s prime minister also chimed in on Thursday, saying that Ukraine’s “rightful place” is in NATO.

Remember: The root of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is largely attributed to Ukraine's Western alliances; Russia sees its potential NATO membership as an existential threat that would be crossing a fine line. America recognizes this tension and has avoided discussing Ukraine's inclusion in the military alliance to prevent escalation.

The significance: Ukraine's inclusion in NATO would mean that any attack on it compels fellow NATO members to retaliate. Were Ukraine currently a member, America might be directly engaged in the conflict rather than just providing support and pressuring other nations. Advocates argue that this move would halt Putin's territorial expansion while detractors worry of the dangers of the multinational conflict that supporters are so eager to see.

The war has fundamentally changed

The drone strikes that hit Moscow's affluent districts on Tuesday night, which Russia and the U.S. attribute to Ukraine, marked a stark shift in the Russo-Ukrainian War. The unexpected eight drone strikes, for which Kyiv has disavowed any responsibility, were the first strikes against Russian civilians in the capital since the war's outset. Fifteen months into the conflict, Ukraine remains resilient despite Putin's bombardment, which has resulted in civilian deaths for Ukraine as well.

Ukraine also recently admitted, after a long period of denial, that its military intelligence was indeed responsible for a sequence of attempted assassinations in Russia.

Will China enter the conflict? U.S. authorities anticipate that a Ukrainian strike on a critical strategic site or figure in Russia could potentially provide China with a pretext to escalate its involvement and supply lethal aid to Russia. China might seize on Ukrainian offensives within Russian territory to portray NATO as the belligerent party and justify increased assistance to Russia.

Nuclear weapons? There's a school of thought suggesting that the only effective countermeasure Russia could deploy against a Ukraine supported by American arms and funding is nuclear weaponry. Recent declarations and interviews indicate that Russia perceives itself under an existential threat—a circumstance that could justify nuclear weapon utilization under Russian foreign policy.

⚡️ Quick Hits

💪 How foreign influence works: U.S. Ambassador to Israel Tom Nides penned a letter to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week, discouraging him from advancing legislation that could restrict Israeli non-governmental organizations from securing funds from foreign governments, anonymous sources from Israel and the U.S. told Axios. Amid pressure from the U.S. and Europe, Netanyahu has put the legislation on hold for additional review. NGOs were used to spur the protests against Netanyahu in the past weeks.

• The reality of NGOs: These organizations serve as tools for foreign governments to exert influence over states wherever diplomatic leverage might fall short. They are commonly utilized to mobilize citizen protests, shape political matters, and initiate legal actions against governments, all in line with the objectives of foreign donors. This strategy played a pivotal role in America's attempt to influence Latin America post-revolution, as well as Ukraine's Maiden Revolution, which led to the overthrow of a pro-Russian president. These are just a couple of instances among many across the globe

🌐 The coalition America is raising: In Cape Town, foreign ministers from the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) convened. On the second day, they were joined by an additional 15 foreign ministers from the Global South, Africa, and "Friends of BRICS" countries. Entering its second decade, BRICS has evolved into a globally recognized powerhouse and a driving force of global economic growth.

• The economic surge of BRICS also signifies a major geopolitical shift. This alliance is increasingly perceived as a counterbalance to America’s "liberal world order." Illustratively, the aggregated gross domestic product of BRICS nations now exceeds that of the G7, a U.S.-led coalition of advanced industrialized nations.

• The defiance: Additionally, the war in Ukraine has amplified the prominence of BRICS, with the coalition considered Russia's most steadfast ally. None of the BRICS countries have endorsed Western resolutions condemning Moscow's military actions. Moreover, BRICS has made itself the lone support pillar for the Russian economy.

📉 Japan birth-rate initiative: Faced with a dwindling birth rate, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has pledged about $25 billion per year in programs aimed at sparking a demographic reversal. The funds will be used to extend existing measures such as broadening childcare availability and bolstering financial assistance for parents. “This will bring our country’s spending per child on families to the level of Sweden,” Kishida announced on Thursday.

• Watch the trend: The promise by Kishida comes as Japan's birth rate nosedived to a record low in 2022, its seventh year of decline. The longstanding dilemma has intensified economic and labor force challenges. This concern isn't exclusive to Japan; China and European countries like Italy have also been making urgent moves recently to address their falling birth rates.

🏛️ Inside America

What does a post-affirmative action America look like?

The U.S. Supreme Court is anticipated to issue a ruling against race-based admissions in higher education soon. In anticipation of this, the Common Application has preemptively removed the so-called "race box" for applicants. The breadth of the court's ruling, due by the end of June, remains uncertain. However, during last fall's oral arguments, the justices exhibited a notable interest in the usage of race boxes.

The scope: The Common Application is a non-profit organization that manages a universal application process utilized by more than 1,000 higher education institutions. From August 1, colleges can opt to withhold racial data from those in charge of admissions due to this change, which is intended to help schools comply with any legal benchmarks the Supreme Court’s ruling may create.

How it could change things: A Princeton study from 2020 found that, because of affirmative action, Asian SAT scores had to be 140 points higher than white students’ scores, 270 points higher than Hispanic students’ scores, and 450 points higher than black students’ scores to be admitted into prestigious schools. The media calls it “race-conscious” admissions, though it is effectively racial discrimination, as plainly acknowledged by leftist intellectuals who support it.

The case could reach far beyond schools: Should the court rule that any advantage or preference based on race is unconstitutional, the repercussions would extend well beyond prestigious universities. Impacted areas could include

• Government initiatives mandating a certain proportion of contracts to minority-owned firms,

• Scholarships and financial aid earmarked based on racial or ethnic backgrounds, and

• Private company recruitment policies aimed at attracting underrepresented groups.

During the pandemic era: The Biden administration has faced criticism for supporting race-based prioritization in COVID-19 treatments, encouraging some states to prioritize resources for non-white patients in critical care situations. This approach effectively meant that white patients with more severe health conditions, such as congestive heart failure, were less likely to receive treatment because of their skin color. Policies such as these stem from the discriminatory philosophy that has emerged in America’s institutions with the embrace of affirmative action in schools.

⚡️ Quick Hits

✅ DeSantis sparks cancellation of pride events: Several Pride events in Florida are being called off amidst growing concerns about anti-LGBT laws recently passed in the state. This comes as Governor Ron DeSantis signed a controversial bill that bars government bodies and officials from granting permits to groups potentially staging any "adult live performance" in the presence of minors. Pride parades are notoriously lewd and hyper-sexualized, even when children are in attendance. These measures have sparked fear of legal recourse, impacting the planning and execution of traditional Pride celebrations.

🤝 Bipartisan populism in Congress: Senator Elizabeth Warren's campaign for tougher penalties on executives of insolvent banks is gaining momentum, thanks to an unlikely conservative ally — Senator J.D. Vance. Warren, a Democrat from Massachusetts, and the Ohio Republican are collaborating to refine the legislation and secure co-sponsors. Nearly half the members of the Senate committee that will consider the bill are sponsors.

• More details: Warren's proposed legislation requires the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to take back compensation granted to executives of large banks during the three years leading up to their institution's collapse or FDIC resolution. Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri is another notable Republican backing Warren's proposal.

🛠️ America lags in factory automation: Despite Chinese factories establishing thousands of private 5G broadband networks to advance AI applications in manufacturing, only a few major US manufacturers have followed suit or intend to. The ultimate objective for Chinese companies? Complete factory automation. To illustrate, Huawei, a Chinese tech giant, unveiled its inaugural fully-automated factory in August 2022.