President-elect Donald Trump has been firm on his desire to shift America’s focus away from Europe and toward Asia.
This desire has stemmed primarily from two places: Trump’s perception that China is a major threat to the United States and his frustration over European allies refusing to pay their fair share on defense.
In the pivot to Asia, the incoming Trump administration will likely shore up relationships with allies like the Philippines, Japan, and Taiwan. However, there may be tensions over a familiar issue: their serious lack of defense spending.
Taiwan, a key partner that helps keep China penned in — spends next to nothing on defense. Earlier this year, their government trumpeted a plan to increase defense spending by six percent — or 2.5 percent of GDP. For reference, the US spends 3.4 percent of its GDP on defense.
While the tiny island of Taiwan would be in for a tough time should China attempt to conquer it, such small spending in the face of the much larger Chinese military indicates they believe the United States will simply ride to their rescue.
The Philippines — another American ally — allocates even less than Taiwan on defense as part of GDP: as of 2022, spending was at a measly one percent.
Japan is a slightly different story, as the country is prohibited by its constitution from having a military (the prohibition was placed there at the behest of America after World War II). However, the country still has a defense force on which it spends 1.1 percent of GDP.
This attitude — not spending on defense with the expectation that America would cover — was the attitude European states had for years; only after Trump’s arrival in the White House, and the expansion of the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022, did they slowly start to change their tunes. By then, however, disengaging militarily from Europe was already high on Trump’s to-do list.
This may be why America’s Asian allies are looking to avoid a similar fate. America’s security is deeply impacted by China’s rise, but it does not entirely hinge on whether or not Taiwan or the Philippines stay free; the US ultimately has other options.
In a possible attempt to demonstrate that they are willing to defend themselves, Taiwan’s government indicated a desire to make large weapons purchases from the Trump administration and the Philippines as well.
