Why Choosing Senators for His Cabinet Could Tank Trump’s Agenda

CNN reported that Senators Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Bill Hagerty (R-TN) are both in contention for the secretary of state position in the next Trump administration.

For years, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) has been discussed as a potential secretary of defense, though Axios reported that he ruled himself out of any cabinet positions. Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), on the other hand, expressed openness to rumors that he could be nominated for secretary of transportation.

The benefits are clear: senators are more likely to be confirmed by their colleagues, and they bring with them high-level federal experience. However, the GOP only has 53 Senate seats; It’s a clear majority, but not an overwhelming one, leaving room for only a few defections.

The downside of senators being nominated for cabinet positions means there will have to be special elections, which can often go poorly for incumbent parties.

When Trump selected then-Senator Jeff Sessions for attorney general, it seemed like a safe bet to win another election in ruby-red Alabama. However, Democrat Doug Jones ended up winning a shock victory in the special election, depriving the GOP of a key seat.

Losing Senate seats is a major setback for the president's agenda, as Congress shapes and ultimately passes the executive’s legislative priorities.

In 2010, under President Obama, a Massachusetts special election held after the death of Sen. Ted Kennedy (D) was won by Republican Scott Brown, breaking the supermajority Democrats had won in 2008. Brown effectively blocked the Democrats from making further changes to the Affordable Care Act, derailing a key piece of Obama’s legislative agenda.

Special elections are a gamble — and ultimately may be too risky for Trump and Republicans.