The Republican Party Is Torn On The Politics Of Abortion

Amid a trend of recent electoral losses for the Republican party — including in a highly consequential Wisconsin Supreme Court race — conservative insiders are rethinking their strategy, concerned that post-Dobbs pro-life legislation could hurt the GOP.

The 2022 midterms had a lackluster showing for Republicans. Energized Democrats and pro-choice moderates turned out in record numbers to vote after the Roe reversal, with polls suggesting that abortion access was a top issue for voters. This may have contributed to the less-than-impressive “red wave” for Republicans, who took back the House by a smaller margin than expected.

The abortion fight has manifested itself most recently in a court battle over Mifepristone, a pill that can induce a miscarriage into the second trimester. U.S. District Court Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk overturned the two-decades-long FDA approval of the drug, pushing the Supreme Court to decide on the issue. The 6-3 conservative majority Supreme Court was set to rule on the decision by Wednesday but punted any final decision to tomorrow.

From the left

Amid news that the on-demand abortion pill could be restricted, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris tweeted that this was a part of the Republicans’ plan “toward a nationwide abortion ban.” Many Democrats have pushed this narrative — that Republicans want to roll back women's rights or ban abortion in all cases, including rape and incest.

President Biden echoed Harris in a statement, saying that the ruling “is the next big step toward the national ban on abortion that Republican elected officials have vowed to make law in America” and encouraging voters to “elect a Congress who will pass a law restoring Roe versus Wade.”

If that doesn't work, elected representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), among others, has suggested that states should start to simply “ignore” Supreme Court rulings, which could lead to a Constitutional Crisis.

From the right

The American right is split on how to handle the issue — at least tactically. Former President Trump says he was “the most pro-life president ever” and has a record to show for it, yet he has been a leading critic of the politics on the issue of abortion.

Trump blamed Republican underperformance in last year's midterm elections on the Dobbs decision. Worried that it could cost him the 2024 election if he is the Republican nominee, some have reported that President Trump is weary of a federal abortion ban, with a campaign spokesperson saying Trump prefers to leave the issue now to the states. Terry Schilling of the American Principles Project denounced this on Twitter, writing, “The ‘states rights’ strategy is how we got gay marriage.”

Some on the right have suggested political foresight and timing may be more critical for pro-life activists in the long haul — waiting until the next Republican president is in office to cement changes. Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), who recently announced an exploration to run for the presidency, struggled to strike the right balance before saying he would support “the most conservative pro-life legislation.”

Meanwhile, others have applauded efforts to double down on pro-life laws, vocalizing support for governors who have continued to move forward, like Governor Ron DeSantis, who just passed a six-week abortion ban. Former Vice President Mike Pence offered his support of DeSantis’ new legislation, telling Fox News, "I'm pro-life. I don't apologize for it.”

Our analysis

Polls offer insight into how voters are thinking. Both Republicans and Democrats see abortion as a top issue in America. Surveys suggest that the timing of abortion is important to many voters opposed to second and third-trimester abortions, but say it might be okay in the first. A staggering 88% of Americans, and 85% of Republicans, are keen to see exceptionsin cases of rape or incest, which only account for about 1% of all abortion cases…

Political analyst Eric Kaufman says in UnHerd that “abortion bans are unpopular, with barely a third of Americans saying abortion should be illegal in most cases. Even 40% of Republicans are opposed.” Kaufman contends the right should instead spend time going after popular targets like affirmative action.

On the other hand, Ryan T. Anderson, President of the Ethics and Public Policy Center, defended pro-life legislation in The Wall Street Journal, reminding readers that Republican Ohio Governor Mike DeWine “won last year by 25 points after signing a heartbeat law...Gov. Brian Kemp and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott both won decisive victories after signing heartbeat laws.” He continued “Standing for the inherent and equal dignity of every human places the pro-life movement on the right side of this issue morally. Compared with Democratic extremism, prolifers are also on the right side as a political matter too.”

But there's a larger problem that many ignore, too: messaging.

Conservatives have ceded ground to liberals in the realm of public opinion and allowed activists to portray pro-life efforts as extreme, tyrannical, and threatening to women's rights. Without proper messaging, Trump's perspective is likely correct — that the continued push to limit abortion could backfire — upending any conservative progress on the issue at the 2024 ballot box.

There is a silent war going on behind the scenes. Republicans have to decide — follow their morals, pass abortion bills, and take an electoral loss, or play politics and slow-walk the issue until they can regain power and handle it at the Federal level.

For now, though, Republican donors, policymakers, and candidates mainly discuss these issues privately. Tomorrow's Supreme Court ruling might just bring this issue to the boiling point again— battle lines will need to be drawn as the 2024 race for the White House inches closer.