The Unintended Consequences of (Very) Early Voting

• Presidential voting is already underway in several states, though election results are not expected to be speedy

• Donald Trump, once a fierce opponent of early and mail-in voting, is now pushing hard for it

• America offers some of the earliest voting in the world, making October debates or late-breaking events less meaningful

The story

The 2024 election is already underway as Virginia, Vermont, Minnesota, and South Dakota have begun early voting, and absentee voting has begun in North Carolina. Illinois starts early voting on Thursday, and most other US states begin throughout October.

Election integrity has become a major sticking point for both Democrats and Republicans, as the latter, spearheaded by former President Donald Trump, are now making a big push for Republican voters to cast their vote early.

However, early voting presents challenges, such as confusion surrounding mail-in ballots, which could threaten the safety and security of the election process.

In Pennsylvania, for example, voters who requested mail-in ballots still have not received them, as the state Supreme Court is causing delays. This process could drag out until early October, depending on the county, adding another layer of confusion to what was intended to be a simple, effective voting process.

And even with over one month of early and mail-in voting, the results of the US presidential election are expected to be drawn out. One city commissioner in Philadelphia claimed that the odds of knowing which candidate won on Election Day is “almost zero.” A Wisconsin official echoed the same sentiment, saying the final tally will likely not be finished until the morning after the election.

The politics

During a rally in Pennsylvania, Donald Trump criticized early voting as “stupid” but still urged voters to cast their ballots early, acknowledging its importance in securing a win in the battleground state.

Trump further remarked, “Now we have this stupid stuff where you can vote 45 days early,” saying that you’re left wondering “what the hell happens during that 45 days.” He now wants his supporters to vote early in such large numbers that the election becomes “too big to rig.”

Republicans are following Trump’s lead, telling voters to embrace mail-in and early voting despite Trump’s aversion to it in 2020. Trump discouraged mail-in and early voting in the last election, claiming that these methods were prone to widespread fraud.

Democrats tend to be strong proponents of early and mail-in voting and strongly rebuke the former president’s claims about widespread fraud.

In the last election, most mail-in voters cast their ballots for Democrats. Trump now sees an opportunity to use these systems to his advantage.

Beyond the headlines

With some states offering early voting around six weeks before the presidential election, the United States offers some of the most liberal voting laws in the entire developed world. Because of this, many aspects of traditional campaigning become irrelevant.

For instance, Kamala Harris agreed to debate Donald Trump again in late October, but by that time, tens of millions of votes would already have been cast, rendering another presidential debate much less consequential.

Additionally, early voting allows individuals to cast their ballots long before all the relevant information is available. In the weeks leading up to an election, critical events can unfold, candidates can change their messaging or positions, and new issues may emerge that could significantly impact voter choices.

This lack of flexibility risks voters casting ballots based on outdated or incomplete information, which undermines the idea of making a fully informed choice.

All of this comes in addition to election integrity concerns surrounding millions of non-citizens potentially voting and the Biden administration fast-tracking newly naturalized citizens to get them enrolled to vote.

Why it matters

The complexity of extended early voting periods, combined with confusion over mail-in ballots and dragged-out ballot counting, risks undermining the transparency and simplicity of America’s voting process.

While Donald Trump recommends surging the number of early votes, the integrity of the process will ultimately come down to the trustworthiness of those counting the ballots, according to the GOP.

The Republican National Committee’s deployment of over 100,000 poll watchers, its army of attorneys, and the passage of numerous state laws aimed at tightening election procedures could reduce some of these risks.