Birth Rates Decline in Blue States

What’s happening: Research indicates that Democratic states have disproportionately low birth rates compared to their Republican counterparts.

A national concern: America’s birth rate in 2023 was well below the replacement rate — the fertility rate needed for generations to be replaced — at 1.62 births per woman.

• So what? Birthing trends are generally indicative of a nation’s prosperity; as nations increase in wealth, reproductive rates tend to decrease. However, birth rates below replacement level can eventually lead to labor shortages, which can strain a nation’s economy.

A political divide: Republicans dominate the 17 states with the highest general fertility rates. By contrast, birth rates in Democratic states are on the decline; California’s birth rate decreased from 2.47 in 1990 to 1.47 today — one of the lowest in the U.S.

Why are the numbers so low? Public policy has a decisive influence on birthing trends; data suggest that high housing costs — exacerbated by policies that restrict supply — lead to fewer people having children.

• Abortion: Blue states directly hinder natality by allowing abortion on a much larger scale than red states.

• Social attitudes: Culturally, the decline in marriage has been identified as a major culprit in contributing to the crisis.

Why it matters: Evidence demonstrates a clear connection between progressivism and decreased birthing trends. For blue states, responding to the national crisis organically would require a seismic shift in societal values.

• Instead: Some have suggested mass migration as a solution to the problem of labor shortage, despite its links to housing shortages and job loss. Still, the declining reproductive rate inspires concern across the aisles.