Why China Needs Russia to Win in Ukraine

What’s happening: China has become one of Russia’s biggest backers in the Russo-Ukrainian War, supplying the country with material, weapons, and economic support.

• More on China’s support: Russia was China’s biggest oil supplier last year; oil sales to China have proven to be a lifeline for Russia’s economy. The communists have also given Russia large amounts of gunpowder, which Russia has used to make ammo, and has helped produce drones.

Why it matters: While much of the Western world is focused on Russia, China remains mostly under the radar. If the Russo-Ukrainian War ends with a Russian defeat, the West will likely shift its attention to China. Therefore, China needs Russia to win.

What China’s thinking: China declared it would help Russia “further establish [itself] on the international stage” and argued against other countries becoming involved in its internal affairs.

• A model for China: Chinese President Xi Jinping has told his army to be ready for an invasion of Taiwan by 2027. Similar to Russia’s view of Ukraine, China views Taiwan as historically part of itself. Justifying Russia’s invasion is tied to China’s conquest of land.

• Worth noting: China’s position on Russia’s relations with Ukraine is nuanced; it does not recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea.

Already shifting? Some Americans on the right are already calling for a focus on China instead of on Russia. Former defense official Elbridge Colby — who would likely serve in a second Trump administration — has repeatedly critiqued Europeans for spending too little on defense and has urged the U.S. to pay closer attention to Asia.