_WHAT’S HAPPENING_
President Donald Trump says Cuba’s communist government is nearing collapse, and the US is seeking to change the leadership. At the same time, the administration is reportedly exploring an economic agreement that could include eased travel restrictions and economic arrangements involving energy and tourism.
Though nobody knows exactly how or when Cuba will be targeted, Trump noted just last night that his administration is pursuing a “friendly takeover” of the regime — unlike the more militaristic approaches to Venezuela and Iran.
_THE FACTS_
President Trump believes that Cuba "is gonna fall pretty soon" and that Secretary of State Marco Rubio would handle negotiations.
A large-scale blackout struck western Cuba last week, leaving millions on the island without power.
Cuba's energy crisis worsened after US military operations captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January and halted Venezuelan oil exports.
Rubio and his aides have reportedly been in secret talks with Raul Castro's grandson, Raulito Castro.
Discussions have included an off-ramp for President Díaz-Canel, the Castro family remaining on the island, and deals on ports, energy, and tourism.
The FBI’s Miami field office recently arrested former US Ambassador Victor Manuel Rocha for allegedly spying for Cuba for decades.
Florida Republicans are urging the Trump administration to reopen the investigation into Cuba’s 1996 shootdown of four exile planes, arguing former leader Raúl Castro ordered the attack.
The US continues to designate Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism, citing its harboring of fugitives and refusal to extradite militant leaders."
The administration has indicated it wants to wrap up operations against Iran before turning full attention to Cuba.
_OUR TAKE_
The administration's approach to Cuba fits a pattern of targeting freedom-promising regimes that have oppressed their populations while positioning themselves against American interests.
Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro claimed to represent the people but oversaw economic ruin and authoritarian consolidation. Iran's theocratic government has consistently crushed protests, suppressing and slaughtering dissenters.
Hezbollah, while not a state, seized control over large portions of Lebanon and is now being dismantled with Israeli military action and apparent US encouragement. Cuba's communist government, which promised liberation from Batista, delivered six decades of repression and economic stagnation.
To Trump, this is unacceptable. And Cuba’s location directly south of Florida places it in America’s sphere of influence, making it a prime target for action to install a US-friendly regime.
