_WHAT’S HAPPENING_
President Donald Trump’s second administration began with a relative balance between realists who were somewhat more inclined toward foreign intervention, such as Mike Waltz, and those who were more skeptical of action abroad, like Vice President JD Vance.
But the last month has seen a sudden shift toward non-interventionists, as the hawks have been fired or moved to less-influential positions.
Many of the changes have occurred at the National Security Council (NSC), long seen as the policymaking heart of the executive branch's foreign policy.
_THE FACTS_
The National Security Council started 2025 with around 300 staff, but Trump quickly ordered Mike Waltz to slash it by half.
After Waltz was ousted, Secretary of State Marco Rubio — now also acting National Security Advisor — is cutting deeper, reducing staff from 150 to just 50-60.
Among those fired were high-ranking officials overseeing Israel, Iran, and the Middle East.
Some of the dismissed staff had only joined the administration months earlier.
Eric Trager, who managed the Middle East portfolio, had just worked on the Senate Armed Services Committee for pro-interventionist Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS).
Alex Wong, Waltz’s deputy and praised by hawks like Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR), was also let go.
Vice President JD Vance’s office reportedly influenced some of the departures.
Vance’s restraint-minded National Security Advisor, Andy Baker, will now take on a bigger role at the NSC.
_INSIGHTS_
It’s clear that, after Waltz’s firing, the non-interventionists in the administration feel they have the upper hand.
The shift toward non-interventionism is already showing up in the Trump administration’s policies, with Secretary Rubio threatening to walk away entirely from the Russo-Ukrainian War and President Trump urging Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to hold off on attacking Iran.
The firings signal more than just a policy shift; they reflect a change in how policy is made. With a smaller NSC, Trump and Rubio are now prioritizing top-down decision-making, with the NSC focused on executing rather than crafting policy.
