GOP’s Chances of Flipping the Senate in 2024

What’s happening: A mix of factors, including Democratic weaknesses and the power of Donald Trump’s endorsements, could flip Senate seats for Republicans in key states.

Why it matters: Despite the GOP’s underperformance in the 2022 midterms, Senate dynamics have changed in 2024. Many seats are vulnerable to Republican challenges, and the GOP could gain control over the upper chamber as it fights to keep the House.

The openings: Senate seats that could flip red in the 2024 election include West Virginia, Maryland, Ohio, Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada, Montana, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

• In West Virginia: Democrat Joe Manchin’s retirement vacates a Senate seat in the deep red state, which is almost certainly a shoo-in for the Republican.

• In Maryland: Republican former Gov. Larry Hogan holds a double-digit lead over his Democrat competition in Maryland — shocking politicos.

• In Arizona: Kari Lake recently narrowed the gap between her and the Democrat rival to only four points.

• In Wisconsin: Republican Eric Hovde ranks second place — within striking distance of current Sen. Tami Baldwin.

• In Ohio: Democrats are wagering that recent primary victor Bernie Moreno will flame out against incumbent Sherrod Brown; but Ohio is solidly Trump-country, and Trump endorsed Moreno.

Thin margins: The Republican challenger is four points down in Wisconsin while, in Montana, Nevada, and Michigan, the challengers are essentially neck-and-neck.

What’s next: The general election is still seven months away; historically, we know anything can happen. However, Trump’s enduring popularity in the GOP could sway elections in favor of Republicans in Trump-friendly states.