A Late Republican Surge Threatens to Flip Congress

• Republicans need to flip two Senate seats to gain a majority

• The GOP is slightly favored to win the Senate and keep the House, with key House races in California and New York

• The media attacks Republican House candidates as being radical, but overlooks Democrats' clear leftward shift

The Senate

In 2022, Republicans managed to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory and underperform in a midterm election that promised big results for the GOP. This year, if the polling can be trusted, Republicans may just have another opportunity to take Congress.

With Democrats only controlling an effective majority of 51 (three senators are independents but caucus with the Democrats), Republicans just need to flip two seats to gain control. Republican Jim Justice of West Virginia is nearly guaranteed to win his election, and Tim Sheehy in Montana has been pulling ahead of Democrat incumbent Jon Tester. These two races would get Republicans to a 51-seat majority.

However, that is not the end of the story — seats that appear safe in red states like Texas and Florida are actually vulnerable. For example, Sen. Ted Cruz (R) is running a close race in Texas, with polls showing him possibly within striking distance of his Democrat rival. In Florida, incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R) seems to be polling around the same as Cruz.

While some races are narrowing, like in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where Republican candidates are closing in on their Democratic opponents, the Republicans’ ability to flip seats in other states remains uncertain.

New internal polling from a top GOP super PAC reveals that in Maryland, Arizona, and Nevada — all of which have Democrat incumbents — Republicans are falling further behind.

The House

Republicans, according to various forecasts, are slightly favored to maintain control of the House of Representatives.

The key to GOP success lies in a few battleground districts, which are surprisingly located in the heavily Democratic states of California and New York. Republicans picked up four House seats in CA in 2020, and are now targeting several competitive seats in traditionally blue areas, including Orange County and the Central Valley.

In the Empire State, the tight contest between incumbent Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro and Democrat Josh Riley has become the most expensive House race in the country, with more than $35.5 million spent on TV and digital ads. Molinaro's seat is one of five in New York that Democrats are trying to flip.

Overall, control for the lower chamber will come down to fewer than 30 elections, with some of the tightest districts being New York, California, Washington, and Alaska’s at-large district. Some forecasting experts even warn that Congressional results could take weeks to roll in, extending far past Election Day.

What the media misses

While the media frequently highlights the supposed extremism of House Republicans and GOP candidates, many often overlook the fact that House Democrats have shifted even further to the left.

For example, when the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act was introduced to ensure proof of citizenship for federal voting, 198 Democrats opposed it, framing it as an "extreme burden" on voters. This opposition aligns with their increasing support for policies that undermine election integrity, including a majority of House Democrats allowing non-citizens to vote in some local elections.

Left-leaning media has frequently criticized the eight Republican senators and 139 representatives who objected to certifying the 2020 election, yet they've remained mostly quiet about Democrats who suggest they might not certify the 2024 election if Trump wins.

House Reps. Jamie Raskin (D-MD), Jan Schakowsky (D-IL), and Jim McGovern (D-MA) are three such house members who hesitated to say they would certify a Donald Trump victory.

Why it matters

Predictions, forecasts, and polls can only provide so much information. The day after the election, Republicans could be looking at a clean sweep of Congress. A less likely, but still plausible scenario is that Democrats outperform in House races and successfully block Republican gains in the Senate by holding Montana or even flipping Texas.

Whoever wins control of the House and Senate will be instrumental in the next president’s agenda. If the GOP sweeps Congress but Kamala Harris wins the presidency, conservative legislation will likely stall. If Trump wins with a Republican Congress, conservatives will have an opportunity to swiftly advance their priorities.

State and local elections will also have a significant role in affecting Americans’ lives, though only three state legislatures — Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Alaska — are currently considered tossups.