Macron Panics as the Populist-Right Rises

What’s happening: French President Emmanuel Macron is concerned his efforts to blunt the rise of the French populist-right are failing. Six months ago, his centrist party was polling five percent behind the National Rally party; now, it’s 11 percent behind.

Why it matters: Macron’s fear comes from a fundamental shift in European politics—the European center-right may abandon centrist parties like his in favor of working with the populists.

• Strong polling: The populists are set to make major gains across the continent in European Union elections this June.

• Parliamentary politics: In America, legislative bodies like the House of Representatives are controlled by a majority of either the Democrat or Republican parties. But because European countries have so many parties, they are often forced to work together in coalitions to achieve majorities.

Cordon sanitaire: Mainstream European political parties had created a cordon sanitaire (sanitary cordon) with far-right parties, which is an unspoken agreement to not work or cooperate with them. Such practice resulted in the European Parliament always being governed by a “grand coalition” of centrist, center-left, and center-right parties.

Breaking down: Now, the cordon sanitaire is breaking down. The European Union’s center-right parties are increasingly open to working with figures like Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who discussed while in office the great replacement theory — a topic which would have made working with her impossible to consider for the center right just a few years ago.

• New coalitions: If the right bloc (the center-right and the populist-right) get enough seats in the European Parliament, they could band together and leave Macron’s centrists out to dry.