How Muslim Voters Could Hand Trump the Election

• Trump’s support among Michigan’s Muslim voters has increased to 30 percent

• The Trump campaign opened an office in Hamtramck, a city with a 60 percent Muslim population, and received the mayor’s endorsement

• Jill Stein is drawing Muslim voters away from Kamala Harris, potentially giving Trump the advantage

The story

Former President Donald Trump's support among Muslim voters has increased significantly compared to 2020.

A recent poll from the nonprofit Rainey Center shows that around 30 percent of Muslim Americans would back Trump in the 2024 election, up seven percent from the last election. Kamala Harris, meanwhile, holds 62 percent of the Muslim vote.

Michigan is one of the key battleground states that could decide the election. And in a striking campaign move, the Trump campaign has opened an office in Hamtramck — a city with a 60 percent Muslim population — signaling an intentional effort to win Muslim voters.

Once a solid Democratic voting bloc, Arab Americans in Michigan have become increasingly disillusioned with the Biden-Harris administration, particularly over its support for Israel in the ongoing Gaza conflict.

Some Muslims believe that, despite being very pro-Israel, Trump would successfully bring peace to the region, unlike his Democratic counterparts. While Trump frequently makes bold claims about ending wars “on day one,” he actually delivered peace to the Middle East while he was in office with the groundbreaking Abraham Accords.

Local Muslim leaders, such as Hamtramck’s Democratic mayor, Amer Ghalib, have even publicly endorsed Trump.

The politics

Figures like Barry Altman, a Republican candidate in Michigan’s state elections, argue that Trump is the only candidate determined enough to bring peace to the Middle East. Others, closer to Trump’s orbit, echo the same sentiment.

“Jews and Muslims, Arabs and Israelis all know Donald Trump means peace,” said former Acting Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell. “Kamala gives them more war.”

On the left, many Democrats are alarmed by the shift in support, as Arab Americans have traditionally backed their party. While Harris still has the backing of prominent Muslim progressives like Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) and Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison (D), she has not received the endorsement of anti-Israel Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), who represents Dearborn, Michigan.

Dearborn has one of the largest Muslim populations in the US, and in the 2024 Democratic primary, over half the city voted “uncommitted,” while only 40 percent voted for Biden.

What the media misses

One key aspect that the media often overlooks is the role of Green Party candidate Jill Stein in peeling away support from Kamala Harris. In Michigan, Stein has gained significant traction with Muslim voters by branding herself as radically anti-Israel.

According to a poll by the Council on American-Islamic Relations, Stein holds the support of 40 percent of Muslim voters, far surpassing both Harris and Trump. This could potentially deprive Harris of tens of thousands of votes since the Green Party is typically an alternative choice for Democrats, not Republicans.

In 2020, Trump lost the state by around 150,000 votes, but Stein was not on the ballot. She appeared on the Michigan ballot in 2016, where she won over 51,000 votes, and Hillary Clinton lost the state by a mere 10,000 votes.

While some media outlets have covered Stein’s candidacy as an afterthought, her influence is clear: led by Muslim voters, the movement to abandon Harris for Stein could easily tilt the state to Trump’s favor.

Why it matters

The shift of Muslim and Arab American voters in Michigan toward Trump is a significant development that could alter the outcome of the 2024 election in his favor. Michigan, with its large Arab American population and 15 electoral votes, is one of the crucial battleground states that both candidates are vying to win.

This shift of a traditionally Democratic bloc toward Trump could have lasting effects on future elections, signaling to Democrats that many voters are willing to back an opposition candidate rather than support the status quo.