New Data Reveals Republicans’ Electoral Dominance

_WHAT’S HAPPENING_

A sweeping realignment is transforming American politics.

Over the last three presidential elections, Republicans have steadily expanded their vote share in nearly half of the nation’s 3,100-plus counties, while Democrats have made consistent gains in just 57.

President Donald Trump’s influence has accelerated this shift, helping the GOP build strength among working-class voters across racial lines. New data from The New York Times reveals just how stark Republicans’ success has been, while Democrats are mainly consolidating support in a few wealthy, highly educated enclaves.

_THE FACTS_

• Republicans have steadily increased their vote share in 1,433 US counties across the last three presidential elections.

• Democrats improved in just 57 counties, creating a six-to-one Republican advantage in geographic expansion.

• Around 42.7 million voting-age Americans live in these surging Republican counties.

• Only 8.1 million Americans live in the Democratic counties.

• Of the 1,433 counties trending Republican, only three had median household incomes above $100,000.

• Among Democratic-trending counties, 18 of 57 exceeded the $100,000 household income threshold.

• Not a single county where Republicans steadily gained support has a majority of adults with college degrees.

• 62 percent of American adults do not have a college degree.

• Republicans gained ground in 193 of America's 200 most predominantly black counties in 2024.

• Of 67 counties with majority Hispanic populations, 66 voted more Republican in 2024 than in 2012.

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