WHAT’S HAPPENING
Republican strategists are sounding alarms as President Trump's approval ratings sink to record lows just weeks before the midterm elections. The latest polls show the president at just 32 percent approval — an all-time low for his first and second terms.
Once-safe red states like Texas, Iowa, Kansas, and Alaska have transformed into competitive battlegrounds, forcing Republican-aligned groups to pour unprecedented resources into races that should have been easy holds.
THE FACTS
Trump's approval on economic issues has cratered among Republicans, dropping 24 points since January to just 56 percent.
Republican approval of Trump's handling of the cost of living has fallen 26 points to 44 percent since January 2026.
Voters favor Democrats by 11 points for control of the House, a four-point shift since July.
Right-leaning political insider Mark Halperin wrote that "the wheels are coming off the Trump White House," citing illegal taxpayer-funded political ads and rumors that MAGA Inc. won't spend down its cash pile.
The Cook Political Report now describes Senate control as "a true coin flip, with viable paths for both parties to win or keep a majority."
Republicans expect to spend between $150 million and $200 million to save Ken Paxton's Texas Senate race alone.
Pollsters told Iowa House Republicans that candidates in +15 GOP districts are now within the margin of error; those in +10 districts are underwater.
Vice President JD Vance has been dispatched to campaign in Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, and Maine — historically safe Republican states that are now in question.
OUR TAKE
The GOP now finds itself scrambling to defend deep-red territory while traditional battlegrounds slip out of reach. Soaring living costs, worsened by the Iran war, are handing Democrats openings in places Republicans once took for granted.
To be sure, midterms almost always punish the president's party, and polling has been shaky before, so a blue wave is not guaranteed. But when Republicans are dumping money into Texas and shipping the Vice President off to red states, it's hard to believe they aren't seeing the same catastrophic warning signs everyone else is.
