RFK Jr.’s Independent Bid Looms over 2024

What’s happening: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent bid for president is causing anxiety on both sides of the political aisle — but especially within the GOP. Recent limited surveys suggest that Kennedy’s third-party run would siphon off more votes from Republicans than from Democrats.

• The numbers: A recent Quinnipiac poll put RFK at a whopping 22 percent in a hypothetical three-way race against Trump (36 percent) and Biden (39 percent), which suggests Kennedy is the most competitive third-party candidate in recent history.

• Perot 2.0? Kennedy is polling higher than any independent presidential hopeful since Ross Perot who many consider played a major spoiler role in the 1992 election.

• Follow the money: A *Politico* analysis of RFK’s donors indicates a rightward lean in his fan base, with more donations coming from those with a history of giving to the GOP than to Democrats.

Why it matters: Third-party candidates can exert an outsized influence on the outcome of a presidential election even if they only rack up a few percentage points. (Democrats *still* haven’t forgiven Jill Stein for her role in Hillary’s 2016 loss).

Both sides: RFK may be more of a headache for Republicans, but Democrats have other challengers.

• The centrist group No Labels, which Nancy Pelosi panned as “perilous to our democracy,” is reportedly considering a third-party presidential run of its own, and is widely viewed as more of a threat to Biden than to Trump.