WHAT’S HAPPENING
Governments across Europe are accelerating defense preparations as their intelligence agencies warn of intensifying Russian hybrid operations against North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries in the coming months.
The warnings come amid a pattern of drone incursions, suspected sabotage, and cyberattacks that European officials say are designed to weaken support for Ukraine without triggering NATO's collective defense provisions.
THE FACTS
Denmark's Defense Intelligence Service warned of a "low but growing risk" that Russia could conduct a limited military attack on a NATO country within months.
Estonia's foreign minister confirmed an August arson attack on drone manufacturer Milrem Robotics was "ordered by the special services of the Russian Federation."
The Kremlin dismissed Estonia's sabotage accusation as "baseless" and having "absolutely no relation to reality."
Russian drones crashed in NATO member Romania and neighboring Moldova on Thursday after targeting Ukrainian border crossings.
US intelligence reportedly warned southern European governments about possible Russian drone operations launched from commercial vessels toward Spain, France, and Italy.
Polish authorities said a fire at a Starlink satellite ground station was caused by sabotage aimed at disrupting internet services.
German authorities suspended Berlin-Brandenburg airport for a night after an unidentified drone was spotted in the area.
Last week, a Russian frigate fired flares at a Danish military helicopter off its coast.
Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said Russian provocations are increasing because Putin "needs to shift attention away from a situation on the battlefield that is not going as he had promised."
OUR TAKE
For years now, Europe has braced for increased Russian aggression against NATO territory. Russia’s “gray-zone” campaign is meant to inflict damage and sow fear in the West while staying just below the threshold that would trigger Article 5. The fear Russia is stoking in Europe is meant to make backing Ukraine feel like too great a cost and risk to bear.
If that strategy works, an empowered Russia will loom larger over Europe. A NATO alliance too fractured or exhausted to stand firm against Russia would leave America to shoulder the burden, an expensive and undesirable outcome.
