_WHAT’S HAPPENING_
The Trump administration is escalating its pressure campaign against socialist Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro, stoking speculation that Washington could be moving toward an all-out war.
The president announced a “complete blockade” on sanctioned Venezuelan oil — nearly half of the country’s exports — coming as the White House has targeted oil revenue and narcotics trafficking, the twin pillars propping up Maduro’s rule.
_THE FACTS_
President Trump announced on Tuesday that the US would blockade sanctioned Venezuelan oil, comprising 44 percent of Venezuelan exports in 2024.
Trump’s fight with Maduro began in 2019, when the US recognized Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s rightful president, imposed sweeping sanctions, and later placed a $15 million bounty on Maduro.
Military action was ruled out in 2019 after Russia’s Wagner Group deployed to Venezuela to protect the regime.
Regime change has been the second Trump administration’s core objective on Venezuela from the start, seen as a gateway to weakening allied regimes in Nicaragua and Cuba.
In August, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth launched “Operation Southern Spear,” building up US forces in the Caribbean and striking at least 25 alleged narco-trafficking boats.
In November, Trump designated Cartel de los Soles a terrorist organization, enabling direct US military strikes and alleging that Maduro sits at its head.
_INSIGHTS_
The Trump administration has barely attempted to sell its long-held case for regime change in Venezuela to the American public. Congress even seems to be in the dark.
This has led much of the public to conclude that these actions are primarily about drugs or access to oil. But it likely has more to do with deterring Chinese influence and what the administration called in its National Defense Strategy the “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine: a strategy to reassert US primacy in Latin America.
